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TP & a flush draw...

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TP & a flush draw...

Postby MVPSPORTS » Thu May 19, 2005 3:52 pm

So, a buddy of mine got involved in this hand, and is too much of a baby to register at BTP, so I figured I'd post and see if my advice was good...

Playing 1/2 NL at UB, both have about $200... Dealt [Qc] [Jc] in MP... he limped... Someone in LP raises to $6... BB calls... he calls...

Flop... [Jd] [3c] [5c] ... he has TPGK, and a flush draw... BB leads for a big $2... he bets out the pot, about $15... LP raises allin, about $180 more... BB folds...

I told him that this guy has Aces or Kings, with probably one of them a club, and to probably fold...

To chase the flush, he needs 3-1 on his money, which he isn't getting... Not sure how the top pair fits in, except that he probably has a higher pair...

BTW... as usual, he didn't listen to me, and the genius had 46, and hit his 2 on the river... Another example, so he claims, that not only 1. Online poker is rigged... but also, and more importantly 2. They are out to get him... :D

I'll be working on upping his medications next week... :D
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Postby Bob314 » Thu May 19, 2005 4:08 pm

The top pair gives you 5 extra outs on an overpair, giving you a maximum of 14 outs, which is pretty solid. I believe the number of outs you need for a coinflip on the flop is 17 but I'm not sure. I agree 100% that you need to fold here.
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Postby laynegt » Thu May 19, 2005 4:14 pm

Same buddy as in Costa Rica?

First, tell him to throw away the QJs after the raise and call. Too much of a trouble hand.

On the flop, against an overpair, pair and flush draw is basically even-money (slight dog if he has a club). When other dude goes all-in, it's totally fishy, and I think you can call if you want, feels like a slightly winning move long run...does feel like you're up against an overpair. a small % of the time he'll have the set, but it's so fishy i feel like a bluff is just as likely.

That is a tough call to make though, I would probably just let it go b/c I can't take the swings. :?
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Postby iceman5 » Thu May 19, 2005 4:19 pm

You normally have 15 outs which makes you almost exactly 50/50. (against an overpair).

If he had reraised you, YOU could push allin because that gives you folding equity to go with your 50/50 shot. Since HE pushed all in, its a coin flip and since theres dead money in the pot, I would probably take the coin flip and call.

As it turns out, your friend was a massive favorite.
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Postby Rhound50 » Thu May 19, 2005 6:44 pm

As ice said the first major mistake here is calling a raise with QJ, that will get you in more trouble then its worth. I would have folded the flop, yes every once and a while you run into a moron with an open ended draw but other than that your best possible scenario is a coin flop, though vs a set or QQ, AJ, you are a significant underdog. There isnt enough dead money in the pot to make up for the times you are way behind.
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Postby rdale » Fri May 20, 2005 7:55 am

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Postby Rhound50 » Fri May 20, 2005 11:44 am

Rdale my thought when calling a raise is I want to call and take his stack, that is pretty hard to do with QJ, more often when you hit your hand you make top pair with a decent kicker, now if your opponant bets now what. There are to many ways to be dominated AA, KK, QQ AQ, or AJ. This flip is pretty much the best you can hope for without flopping 2 pair ot trips and my read on this guys is that at best I'm 50/50. I would rather call a raise here with suited gapperss something like 4/6 or 5/7, this way if my opponant is playin 10's or jacks when I hit a big flop I may take his stack, with QJ the best case you can hope for is a coin flip preflop pp's up to 10's or something like AK or A10, in all these situations when you hit your flop your opponant makes no part of the hand and you bet and they fold.
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