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Raises against calling stations

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Raises against calling stations

Postby Aisthesis » Sat May 21, 2005 3:31 am

Here's my current recipe for raising vs. calling stations:

QQ-AA only and AK. You raise a little harder ($25-$30 is good at my 2/5) to limit the field--the old "ideally 2 callers" principle (I think these hands can actually handle up to 8xBB if necessary).

And you ONLY bet the flop if your hand looks good. These guys are not going to lay down AT or KQs to a raise! And they're going to call you with AQ or worse when an A flops to your AK. So, you never play Brunson against these guys.

Moreover, raising JJ is imo just too dangerous. You now probably do have overcards. With QQ, you probably don't. And 99-JJ also gain enormously on deception value. No one is expecting an overpair (which may not be good, by the way, with 6 people in the hand), and you can overset someone for his entire stack very easily.

One only (my opinion) goes into Brunson mode against players who are capable of laying down. What I'm still a little undecided about is whether or not to semi-bluff nut straights and flushes against these guys. Haven't really had any opportunities there, and safer, at least, is just to let 4 people call a pot-sized bet to you so that you can essentially always just flat call with correct odds. That's probably objectively the best way to go, but I'm just getting very eager to take an entire stack or two on one of these things... (have had almost no suited connectors in playable situations up to now, and AXs seems to hit me almost always in EP, where I won't play it, although I've tried it a couple of times in SB).
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Postby rdale » Sat May 21, 2005 2:44 pm

I think you should open up your raising more from late to include JJ TT but early and mid play super solid like this as you will likely be firing into a field. I raise AK about 50/50 against calling stations from every position. You are going to get paid by Ace rag enough to warrant not raising, and it maintains the size of the pot making a five card board acceptable to play, which you will, more than you like.
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Postby Aisthesis » Sat May 21, 2005 5:19 pm

I'm not sure I understand exactly what you mean with "making a five card board acceptable to play."

My main raising reason on AK is thinning the field to avoid getting sideswiped on TPTK. AQ will easily call at these tables--and lose enormously if we both hit the A (although AK does have to watch a little on KQ or AQ flops). Similarly KQ. Two of my biggest hands yet have been AK vs. KQ where we both hit.

On JJ/TT, I really think that raise from any position has a function only against players who will lay down KJ to the raise (even after my big hand and tight play, note that Q8 calls my raise to $20 without really even hesitating from LP).

And absolutely NO ONE is expecting a JJ or TT unraised. Moreover, set hands are absolutely enormous at these tables. So, why not give oneself an additional set opportunity? The way the table last night was going, if the flop came J52, A5 (or worse) would probably bet on middle pair, and if I got really lucky with another 5 hitting the board, his stack would be gone to my big set.

Just another example: On my 99 hand, had I raised, I'd lose enormous equity, because they're again thinking maybe AK, so AJ isn't nearly as confident moving in on the AA9 board. Of course, the flop could just as well have been JJ9 or such, giving him more confidence. But at these tables, I think sets have much greater value than the ability to pick of decent but smallish pots early in the hand, and the risk with JJ/TT is just too great. It's completely frivolous to bet them with any overcard showing. Someone will just always call.
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