by Aisthesis » Sun May 22, 2005 3:36 pm
Ok, I'm going to continue playing devil's advocate here, picking up a bit on Kalle's range of hands. And, upfront, I should also say that one reason I'd consider the KK laydown (despite obvious limp-re-raise intention in the beginning) is that this raise does look to me a lot like AA.
But Kalle's raise range is actually pretty good and pretty conservative. When it comes to BB here, there are no less than 6 limpers, and you really do need to narrow it down a lot regardless of what raising hand you have. But let's just say Kalle is here in BB.
Since you have KK, there are now 6 AA hands, 1 KK (which is a split pot anyway, so I'll leave that out of the calculation), 6 QQ hands, 12 AK hands, and 6 JJ hands (I'll take the maybe's on TT-JJ as just "always on JJ, never on TT").
Now, I'll first assuming that to the re-raise of at least $90, Kalle is laying down all but AA/KK, and on both of those comes over the top of you. What happens here? Ok, you win $36 24 times here (sum: $864). But how much do you lose to Kalle? Well, if you always call his all-in, you just lose 80% of your whole stack 6 times and split once (you win as underdog against his AA sometimes). So, you have around $1,200 in losses here. On the other hand, because it's Kalle (and this is the part I really hate), you don't have to lose your whole stack. You can actually lay down your KK to his all-in and lose only $90 7 times for a total loss of $630, so the re-raise was still profitable.
Now, one might ask, since Kalle knows this, is he going to move in on you now with QQ? No, he can't--because if HE doesn't have AA, there's exactly a 50/50 chance that you have AA here yourself, and on AA, you're going to call him and he's in big trouble. AK doesn't give him any additional information either--still 50/50 whether you've got aces or kings, and that's not good enough to make the bluff profitable.
Anyhow, the part of this I really don't particularly like is making a big re-raise and then hitting the brakes on my KK. The button raise is big, but, as several have pointed out, it's not really excessive for a big pair in this situation. Just judging by the raise alone (which is all we have at the moment), I think BB is actually a pretty decent player.
But the problem is still slightly more complex. At re-raise to $90, does JJ have any kind of odds to draw to the set? Well, it costs $60 to see the flop for a current pot of $140 or so plus the remainder of suhleaf's stack, which is now $160. Ok, $60 for a possible win of $300... No odds to draw for the set, since you're only getting 5:1 whereas the set on the flop is 7.5:1. However, with deeper stacks, the re-raise needs to be bigger to make this play clearly wrong.
So, now let's say that in BB, it's not Kalle but Mr. Tricky, who flat calls the $90 re-raise with, in fact, all of his raising hands, which are the same as Kalle's. How does KK proceed? Well, an A, J, or Q on the flop are all scare cards now for KK. Moreover, without the set, KK may already be beat. THIS is really the situation, I suppose, that has me running a bit scared here, and another one that has me second-guessing myself is re-raising, then possibly folding.
Against players that are actually playing the odds (essentially tight, solid players), I think making the re-raise, then laying down to the all-in on KK is probably best. They just have AA, and if they don't, they're still making a bad play, because it's 50/50 that I do. But what on earth am I really getting involved with holding KK against rather murky players likely to be holding a very good hand but also willing to sacrifice quite a bit of EV for the sake of deception?
Here's my preliminary conclusion:
1) Against optimists likely to call with QQ: Yes, go all the way with KK every time.
2) Against tight players: Re-raise with willingness to fold to an all-in (they only do this on AA/KK, and since you have KK, they probably have AA--by the same token, if they do it on anything but AA, they're in trouble themselves).
3) Against murky players: I'm still confused as to how to proceed (more analysis to follow, but I'm rapidly becoming brain-dead thinking about this situation).