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Would you raise this much with aces?

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Would you raise this much with aces?

Postby Suhleafs » Sat May 21, 2005 6:08 pm

im new to the table so I've not reads on anybody.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed)

Hero ($252)
UTG+1 ($344.95)
MP1 ($405)
MP2 ($110.20)
MP3 ($511)
CO ($216.45)
Button ($427.90)
SB ($172)
BB ($567.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [Ks], [Kc].
Hero calls $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 1 fold, MP2 calls $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, SB completes, BB raises to $32, Hero raises to $90, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $58.

Flop: ($200) [9h], [3d], [5s] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $162 (All-In), BB calls $162.

Turn: ($524) [7d] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($524) [8c] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $524

Results later
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Postby Aisthesis » Sat May 21, 2005 6:37 pm

Well, judging from the title, I'm guessing your opponent had AA. And to answer your question: No, I wouldn't raise that much with AA.

But I would also have raised more with KK in your shoes. I've had several ticklish ones like that lately and have gotten into trouble with these big pairs occasionally.

But, in any case, once you re-raise a big raise like that, you're pot-committed. All-in actually isn't a bad play at an unknown table, I think, but I'd re-raise to at least $120.

Everyone here will probably also lynch me for saying this, but I don't think laying down is such a bad option either. What's happening is this: If he has AA, you're a 4:1 underdog, so you essentially lose 4/5 of your stack (=$200).

On the other hand, your re-raise is taking down a pot of $45 or so on all other holdings. So, there have to be AT LEAST 5 hands that he's making this move on that are NOT AA for the move to be profitable (if you knew he'd also call with JJ or QQ or such, then, ok, it's different, but almost no one will pursue JJ any further to that bet and few will pursue QQ). Well, the $32 raise doesn't look at all to me like AK, although it's possible.

Anyhow, if he'll make that same raise on AA, will he make it also on 5 more pairs? Like QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88? I doubt it, as a rule, and this is an unknown table.

You don't have enough stack depth to play KK for the set (which is questionable anyway given the size of the raise, and I know it sounds pretty weird).

For the moment, anyway, I'm seriously considering just quietly laying down KK in those situations to big raises up front, unless the opponent is rather short-stacked, limiting my risk. And possibly reserving the big re-raise for AA.

Anyhow, I just really definitively do not like having my whole stack in play as underdog, and it's happened to me 3 times in the last week, all of them on these big pair hands.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sat May 21, 2005 7:23 pm

Ais... I've had my Aces and Kings cracked like 4 times out of 4 in the last couple days, and I'd still push this... I don't know why you'd think people wouldn't call w/ QQ or AK enough to make this profitable...

I don't see really any reason why I would lay down KK PF, unless there were like 3+ people all going allin before me... heads up, I'll take my chances that I've got him beat and pray he doesn't have aces...

BTW... leafs... you can't write "results later" when you say the guy has aces in the title... :D

BTW again... congrats for making it up to the 2/4 tables... I remember, back in the day, when Iose all my money to you at the .5/1 tables at GC...
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Postby Stelvask » Sun May 22, 2005 1:27 am

with that many limpers, quite often i will raise that high with aces, especially if one of them has shown a strong tendency to make loose calls preflop and/or i already have an aggressive image at the table.

However, when i raise preflop, i raise all hands the same. Generaly my raises are 4x BB + 1 BB for every limper already in the pot (which in this pot would actually be 36-40), and i make that same raise whether i'm raising with aces, kings, tens, AK, 67s, whatever. So it's with this many people in, it's definatly not out of the question for a player to raise that much hoping to limit the field to a lone caller - after all, it's always better to win a small pot than lose a big one if he doesn't raise enough. Still, if i were the BB, and i had a hand worth raising, i would raise to about this amount. you could still expect to see a small range of hands from me here, though generally TT-AA. you'd be surpised how often even this big of a raise gets called at these tables.

Also, when you're limp reraising with KK, it's going to become far more difficult to get away from the hand when you're against aces than it might be in other KK vs AA situations. unfortunatly that's part of the game that happens to everyone.
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Postby Kalle » Sun May 22, 2005 4:01 am

Yes I would raise that much with aces. But I would do the same with QQ and sometimes JJ, TT and AK. And also on a steal. Folding preflop is horrible. You need a very good read to fold KK preflop with only 53BB.

I think you played it well. With your stack size you could have made a smaller reraise to make sure that QQ-TT + AK doesnt fold. But a big reraise is also good.

If the BB had AA he played it well, nothing you can do. But he could also have QQ or JJ. What would you have done if he reraised all in preflop?
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Postby iceman5 » Sun May 22, 2005 1:57 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Sun May 22, 2005 3:36 pm

Ok, I'm going to continue playing devil's advocate here, picking up a bit on Kalle's range of hands. And, upfront, I should also say that one reason I'd consider the KK laydown (despite obvious limp-re-raise intention in the beginning) is that this raise does look to me a lot like AA.

But Kalle's raise range is actually pretty good and pretty conservative. When it comes to BB here, there are no less than 6 limpers, and you really do need to narrow it down a lot regardless of what raising hand you have. But let's just say Kalle is here in BB.

Since you have KK, there are now 6 AA hands, 1 KK (which is a split pot anyway, so I'll leave that out of the calculation), 6 QQ hands, 12 AK hands, and 6 JJ hands (I'll take the maybe's on TT-JJ as just "always on JJ, never on TT").

Now, I'll first assuming that to the re-raise of at least $90, Kalle is laying down all but AA/KK, and on both of those comes over the top of you. What happens here? Ok, you win $36 24 times here (sum: $864). But how much do you lose to Kalle? Well, if you always call his all-in, you just lose 80% of your whole stack 6 times and split once (you win as underdog against his AA sometimes). So, you have around $1,200 in losses here. On the other hand, because it's Kalle (and this is the part I really hate), you don't have to lose your whole stack. You can actually lay down your KK to his all-in and lose only $90 7 times for a total loss of $630, so the re-raise was still profitable.

Now, one might ask, since Kalle knows this, is he going to move in on you now with QQ? No, he can't--because if HE doesn't have AA, there's exactly a 50/50 chance that you have AA here yourself, and on AA, you're going to call him and he's in big trouble. AK doesn't give him any additional information either--still 50/50 whether you've got aces or kings, and that's not good enough to make the bluff profitable.

Anyhow, the part of this I really don't particularly like is making a big re-raise and then hitting the brakes on my KK. The button raise is big, but, as several have pointed out, it's not really excessive for a big pair in this situation. Just judging by the raise alone (which is all we have at the moment), I think BB is actually a pretty decent player.

But the problem is still slightly more complex. At re-raise to $90, does JJ have any kind of odds to draw to the set? Well, it costs $60 to see the flop for a current pot of $140 or so plus the remainder of suhleaf's stack, which is now $160. Ok, $60 for a possible win of $300... No odds to draw for the set, since you're only getting 5:1 whereas the set on the flop is 7.5:1. However, with deeper stacks, the re-raise needs to be bigger to make this play clearly wrong.

So, now let's say that in BB, it's not Kalle but Mr. Tricky, who flat calls the $90 re-raise with, in fact, all of his raising hands, which are the same as Kalle's. How does KK proceed? Well, an A, J, or Q on the flop are all scare cards now for KK. Moreover, without the set, KK may already be beat. THIS is really the situation, I suppose, that has me running a bit scared here, and another one that has me second-guessing myself is re-raising, then possibly folding.

Against players that are actually playing the odds (essentially tight, solid players), I think making the re-raise, then laying down to the all-in on KK is probably best. They just have AA, and if they don't, they're still making a bad play, because it's 50/50 that I do. But what on earth am I really getting involved with holding KK against rather murky players likely to be holding a very good hand but also willing to sacrifice quite a bit of EV for the sake of deception?

Here's my preliminary conclusion:

1) Against optimists likely to call with QQ: Yes, go all the way with KK every time.

2) Against tight players: Re-raise with willingness to fold to an all-in (they only do this on AA/KK, and since you have KK, they probably have AA--by the same token, if they do it on anything but AA, they're in trouble themselves).

3) Against murky players: I'm still confused as to how to proceed (more analysis to follow, but I'm rapidly becoming brain-dead thinking about this situation).
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Postby Suhleafs » Mon May 23, 2005 5:07 am

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Postby rdale » Mon May 23, 2005 1:48 pm

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Postby eliteprodigy » Mon May 23, 2005 2:43 pm

I'm gonna go with Rdale here and agree I like a prefop call from your opponnent if he has AA. He has you right where he wants you if he has aces. He pretty much knows you have Kings and most of the time he'll get you all in on the flop like that.
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 23, 2005 3:02 pm

Well, sorry for going into another one of my laborious analyses on this, suhl. I don't think anyone can make a truly detailed analysis on the spot--I certainly can't, hence, I try to do it after the fact, because if I do make a detailed analysis eventually, I can actually remember it.

And in this case, my conclusion eventually was pretty much the majority opinion: Keep pounding KK unless you're up against a known tight player (only capable of re-raising or moving in on AA/KK). What clinches it is that the "murky player" will call too often on inferior hands, and you win big.

I also note that this idea does have sufficient bluff prevention against a very aggressive TAG: Unless he has AA, there's a 50% chance that you do, so coming over the top with anything except AA is a very dangerous play for him.

Interesting hand from last night: Player who has been on a roll and has $1,500 in chips in front of him re-raises all-in (!!!) to a $15 raise with 4 in the hand in front of him (I wasn't playing the hand, and the whole night was pretty much just a bunch of folds again for me). The guy sitting next to me, with $900 in chips, who was the initial raiser, waits a VERY long time to fold and is actually seriously considering it with his AJs, believe it or not. I'll play KK against AJs for all-in all night long...
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Postby Zarathustra » Tue May 24, 2005 12:39 pm

Yes, I'd raise that much (its only 8xBB right?) with that many limpers in. But I'd also raise that much quite often with QQ and JJ trying to take it down (not AK!). So, folding KK seems too scared to me.
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