by Aisthesis » Tue May 24, 2005 2:23 pm
Yeah, you guys are probably right (oh, and Z, I'm always talking real big blinds, not PTBB, which would make the win rates Utopian).
Sample from last night (where everything was going wrong): Moderately loose raiser in MP (this guy isn't bad, but I'm increasing coming to think he's a tournament player--raises AQ consistently and also a lot of smallish pairs, 99 and up consistently, which at this game, I have found too dangerous, since everyone calls raises with crap all the time) raises to $20. I'm sitting on the button with KK and re-raise to $60.
Since we know each other fairly well now and he respects my raises, I think he'll probably fold, but in fact, he calls--with AQ, as he told me later, and I believe him here. Flop comes Arags with 2 hearts, and my KK is black. He checks, I check. Turn is a 3rd heart, he bets $40 ($130 pot), and I fold.
Objectively, I don't think there was much to worry about on the made flush, and had I had Kh, I might have raised at that point. I don't think this guy would have called my re-raise with less than a big ace or QQ anyway. And he said he would have folded PF had he known I had KK. Anyhow, while this hand was pretty typical of the way things were going last night, I think it actually demonstrates the value of the raise. I did get a $120 pot going with a hand that's better than a 75% favorite to take down the flop.
I was originally rather worried that he might have bluffed me out of it with QQ including Qh, but, I don't know, I really think it was a pretty decent laydown... The bluff with anything except an A was also quite risky, since I have definitely been know to slowplay top set (AA) on something like that.