by Aisthesis » Wed May 25, 2005 7:08 pm
devil, I think you're absolutely right, and you probably wouldn't get into much trouble even at the $100 level, which is the highest I've played online.
I do think you can cut your losses occasionally against know tight players--but even those (as noted in some current threads here), will consider re-raising AK. Although I don't see a good tight player pushing in to a re-raise from another tight player holding only AK.
Playing through that situation (and there are very few player for whom I have sufficient respect to make this move), I'm guessing that one might have a scenario somewhat like this, as "most difficult case":
You're on the button or in a blind with KK (I'm going to try to settle it PF) at a .50/1 table:
Iffy UTG raises to $3, and MP, for whom you have a lot of respect, makes it $12. If you're pretty sure MP will re-raise AK, you're probably still good to go with a $36 bet or so, then folding to an all-in (if AK does that, it's not a player for whom I have that much respect). If MP is very tight but not that aggressive with AK, I think one can consider folding here. The worst he's got is probably KK, he's definitely not pursuing QQ any further if you re-raise (on the outside chance he re-raised QQ in the first place, which he might be doing against loose UTG despite your read on him), and since you have KK already, he in all probability has AA.
I will say this: If tight player will make this move with AA/KK or AK only, the EV already looks like this:
6 AA hands: You lose $36
1 KK hand: You may lose $36 if he re-raises, but this is unlike anyway. I'm going to count it as a wash, because I think tight player himself should fold his KK to you, for whom he also has respect.
12 AK hands: You win $15 ($12 from tight player), but you also might get a loose call from UTG, who very likely doesn't have AA.
So, you're still somewhat on the losing end of it here, unless UTG helps you out, but not by much.
Bottom line imo: You have to have ENORMOUS respect for the re-raiser to lay KK down.