at nutty Jetset poker... the land of the calling stations... .50/1 NL I have $150, other two have around $40 each...

I get dealt in EP... bet out $5... 2 callers (the 2 short stacks)...

Flop ... I bet $10 ... MP short raises allin for $35 more ... LP calls... what should I do...?

I called, MP had 55, and LP had [10d] for the flush... Nothing boated me up, and I lost $40...

Was this a good call against 2 players...?

I would have folded this one. Theres usually a good reason that the shortstack is the shortstack, I would have been more inclined to make this move against a couple of players who could lay dpwn a hand as opposed to the two table contributers. My2c,

sonicboom

It was $35 to you and the pot was $115? Easy call.

I agree with ice intuitively but would actually like to calculate the odds on this one, since it does come up fairly often.

But first, I should also say that I disagree with sonic. I much prefer the fact that they're short-stacked and already pot-committed. If someone has the flush already and is prepared to play it strongly, it will be difficult to make it to the river against a deep stack, I think.

I want to make the calculation a bit unfair by completely ignoring 55, which really hurts your hand, because it takes away 3 outs (not only the two fives in the guy's hand, but it also counterfeits one of your boating possibilities, which makes that guy quads). So, with 2 credible players in the hand, the call is probably a bit more questionable--then again, both of them could have flushes the way the action is going, which would, by contrast guarantee that ALL of your outs are there. Anyhow, I'm pretty sure that if the one guy showed you his 55, you'd have to fold it. But he didn't, so here goes:

On the turn, you would appear to have 7 outs with 47 cards in the deck, and on the river, you would appear to have 10 outs with 46 cards left (This is actually pessimistic if both players have the flush, because it would leave 4 less cards in the deck on each street, but, anyhow, we're not playing with open cards here, so I think this is a good enough way to figure it).

Hence, you have to call $35 for a chance at a pot of $115, right?

The probability that you miss on both streets is: (40*36)/(47*36) = 67%, hence 33% that you hit, hence 2:1 odds. So, you're actually way good here (as long as the one guy doesn't show you his 55...). If he does show you his 55, your odds go down to almost 3.5:1, hence bad call.

Just as "point of interest" if you have to bet on all streets (aside from implied odds): You're 15% to make it on the turn, and 22% to make it on the river if you miss the turn. So, from a pure pot odds standpoint, with set against known flush, you'd have to get 5.7:1 to draw on the flop, then 3.6:1 to draw on the turn against a known flush. I mention this really mainly as a reminder to those who might consider slowplaying a made flush on the flop. Even if it's the nut flush, you need to bet something if you want to have "complaining rights" about getting boated!!

And, if I can make yet another point. This is just one more reason to play with a deep stack: With a deep stack, you actually CAN protect your flush on the turn if the board hasn't paired yet.

Ais... I love reading your analysis (how do you pluralize analysis?), but sometimes you confuse the hell out of me... So, it was a good call as long as they both had a flush, but bad cause one of them had trips also, right??? What about if I'm playing against a couple of bozos (which these both were) who are just as likely to have 2pr or TP kicker...? Does that factor into your calculations at all...?

lol, sorry!

Well, basically, the problem is that for any particular calculation, you have to have a number for your real remaining outs as well as cards left in the deck.

Two pair or 1 pair with Ad doesn't hurt you that bad because the former takes away only 2 outs (making the call marginally profitable, I'd guess without actually figuring it out) and the latter only 1 out on your boat.

Basically, on the 2 pair scenario, while 2 of your pairing cards are gone, the only way he's going to beat you is getting runner-runner quads (55 doesn't need runner-runner to hit quads).

And if they BOTH have the flush on the flop, then neither one has pairs. So, if you "knew" this, then you'd also know that neither one of them has a pair, hence the odds are actually better for you because none of your outs are already taken up by known hands and there are really only 43 unknown cards left in the deck once you've seen the flop.

I mean, you could also do a calculation by attaching various probabilities to each scenario, then calculating your winning chances for each, but there's no way anyone is going to be able to do this at the table.

Here's the way I'd look at it: If no one has any pair here, then your boating odds are 2:1 (to the river), so quite good. If no one has the flush yet, then you're even better off because you're actually ahead and don't even need the boat.

The worst-case scenario is the one that is actually given: A large number of boating outs are gone for you, but you do have to boat because someone else has the made flush. And even then, the call is just barely bad (3.5:1 and you're getting slightly better than 3:1 on the call).

With all that, which I hope may have added at least some clarity (?) rather than further confusion, I'd say that here, with the betting over and getting better than 3:1 on the call, it is indeed a pretty easy call.

But, in general, on a suited board, I think you probably need circumstances to be quite favorable if you have several players in the hand. Some of them may be taking away some of your outs.

I mean, for a decent player, who is really wanting to get involved in a suited flop? Well, sets definitely, although with obvious worries. Unimproved Ad (maybe also Kd or Qd, although I think it's pretty unwise), who may semi-bluff but is currently behind to a set. Or a made little flush, who is likely to be all over it to keep from getting outdrawn.

With your read on the players, you may have more hands in it than that (2 pair is in very bad shape here, actually, to the made flush, with only 4 outs on both turn and river), but you may well be ahead, too.

Really, with any set on a suited board, I'll generally try to see the turn at least, unless they just price me completely out of it. I don't think you can really do much more than that on the spot because the variety of possible situations is so large that the calculation is way too complex to make in your head.

Funny... now that you explain it like that... All that stuff is EXACTLY what was goin through my mind... Either that or "OOH I got trips... allin baby..."