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Overpair on a ragged paired flop

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Overpair on a ragged paired flop

Postby briachek » Sat May 28, 2005 1:59 am

Villian is a tight, aggressive opponent. Basically, we are both very similar players.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (10 handed)

Villain ($55.3)
UTG+1 ($41.19)
Hero ($99.85)
MP1 ($52)
MP2 ($48.75)
MP3 ($44.85)
CO ($42.5)
Button ($15.3)
SB ($50.5)
BB ($30.7)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with [Ac], [Ah].
Villian calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.5, 7 folds, Villain calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) [3h], [5s], [3d] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $3, Villian calls $3.

Turn: ($11.75) [Kc] (2 players)
Villian checks, Hero bets $6, Villain raises to $18, Hero ????

the villain may have AK and called on the flop thinking my bet was weak. He could be trying to take the pot away from me. At this point, I'm only behind a 3, 55 or KK. He would have raised or limp raised with KK and he wouldn't called UTG with a 3 unless it was 33 so that's unlikley. Therefore, I'm only afraid of 55 and I'm ahead of AK or him trying to push me off the hand.. What do you do?
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Postby Stelvask » Sat May 28, 2005 10:22 am

that's interesting.

I like your bets on these streets a lot. there's no flush draw, and his limp/call utg rules out a straight draw or A3

his raise on the turn is strange - i don't think that the flopped quads would check raise that much, and i kind of doubt that 55 would either - neither hand has much (or anything) to fear or protect against.

Even still, because of the size of your bets, he's can't possible put you on AA.

I think you're ahead here, and can get the most money out of him by calling here and letting him bet on the river. if you push this turn you're only getting called by a hand that beats you.

I think folding it out of the question.

On the river, i'm not sure if i'd push, but i think i'm calling any bet here, since the only hand i'm really afraid of from a tight opponent is 55
Last edited by Stelvask on Sat May 28, 2005 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Stelvask » Sat May 28, 2005 10:23 am

right, i would also value bet if he checks to you on the river.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sat May 28, 2005 10:27 am

2 things... his call PF, call the flop, checkraise the turn smells like trips or a boat to me... But, if you have a good enough read on him to KNOW he doesn't have a 3 or KK, then I would push here... You got AK dead... If he's got 55, that's just bad luck, and still have outs if another A or 3 hits... This would've been the best flop for him to hit, and the reason people call PF raises w/ small PPs... You pretty much know he's gonna push the river, since he's got like $25 of his $55 in the pot... I would push and put the tough decision on him...
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Postby Longwyfrmlbc » Sat May 28, 2005 2:48 pm

Solid but Angry Player: it's ok, in the long run your gonna make me a lot of money with bad play
Belligerent Outdrawer: how about i fly to where you live and kick your ass
Solid but Angry Player: what, are you going to outdraw me to death?
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Postby Longwyfrmlbc » Sat May 28, 2005 2:49 pm

Solid but Angry Player: it's ok, in the long run your gonna make me a lot of money with bad play
Belligerent Outdrawer: how about i fly to where you live and kick your ass
Solid but Angry Player: what, are you going to outdraw me to death?
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Postby Aisthesis » Sat May 28, 2005 4:18 pm

I do think the weak-ish flop bet makes things a little confusing. I'd be more inclined to overbet a little (like $6) than underbet there in order to see what we have.

As to the further progress, I think Long makes an excellent analysis.
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Postby briachek » Sat May 28, 2005 10:36 pm

Results:

I tricked you guys a little and reversed the players. I was the villian and had 55 and obviously got the monster flop I wanted. I hoped that he had an overpair. He went all in on top of my turn check raise. I called just hoping he didn't hit his two out and was pleasantly surprised to win a big pot. What are your thoughts now on my play UTG to trap this guy for all his money?
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sun May 29, 2005 12:38 pm

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