by Aisthesis » Thu Jun 02, 2005 3:31 pm
With both callers in, I think you're pretty much done with it. Logical would be to me for the first caller to have 44 and the second KJ (although it seems like every time I think something is logical, they turn over a completely different hand), although of course AQ is also in the mix, too.
I'm also not at all sure about the checkraise here, ice, but if you do want to go that way, I really think it was excessively large. To require a full 2:1 call from the initial bettor, you would only need to go pot plus 3 times the bet, or $140 (on that he has to call $110 for a pot of currently $220), and I'd say $120 is already plenty. By making the checkraise so large, I think you gain less information about what your opponents are holding because the bet looks so strange.
But really, unless you have some reason to believe that someone is definitely going to bet, I don't understand why you don't just bet it out around pot-size to begin with. If it's checked around, KJ is going to be very happy on this flop. Of course, KQ, possibly even QJ, and certainly AQ is going to suspect kicker problems with you in BB, so they'll presumably raise, as 44 might, too, although 44 might also flat call here. But you have much better chances in any case (except with a flat call from 44) of getting KJ out of the hand.
Anyhow, if all that is correct, you have 2 queens left in the deck, hence 8 instances of AQ and 8 of KQ over and against only 6 possible 44 hands. So, if you bet out and get raised, I think it might be worth moving in. If you bet out and get 2 flat calls, then you can lay it down without nearly as much trouble on that turn. I really do think that turn is pretty much the end of your hand. Whether after a checkraise or any of the above "bet out sequences" with 2 callers, I think you're really wasting your money firing out another turn bet at all (although it's much less clear to me after the excessive checkraise--it's vaguely possible that you're actually ahead still, but I doubt it).