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QT... UGH!

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QT... UGH!

Postby iceman5 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:10 am

$5/$10 NL

I have [Qs][Tc] in the BB. 4 limpers.
Pot is $50. The flop comes [Qh][Td][4s]. I check. EP bets $30 and gets 2 callers.

I check raise to $200. EP and one of the callers calls. UGH!

Pot is $650. I have $900 left. EP has $550. The other caller has $1200.
Turn is the [Ac]. HELP!!! Whats your play?
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Postby kidluckee » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:20 am

The only possible hands left that you can beat are KQ or J9. You are toast I think. Sure sucks though, that is the absolute worst card that could come. So either check-fold, or bet 2/3 and fold to raise (by the caller), I think are your only options.
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Postby Yogadude » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:59 am

Last edited by Yogadude on Thu Jun 02, 2005 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby kidluckee » Thu Jun 02, 2005 12:08 pm

Ice is behind AT as well.
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Postby Yogadude » Thu Jun 02, 2005 12:24 pm

"Ice is behind AT as well"

woops..I changed it to KQ..thanks

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Postby JDLush » Thu Jun 02, 2005 12:28 pm

I'd have to think you are toast. AQ or AT are both very possible hands here (I'd guess EP actually has KQ, but limping from EP with AQ is something I'll do half the time). I think I check and see what happens, planning on folding. This is another one of those cases where you just aren't in a spot that should make you comfortable to risk your stack, especially with 2 callers to deal with.
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Postby Stelvask » Thu Jun 02, 2005 1:40 pm

i pout and request my $200 back . then i check fold.

There's very very few hands calling $200 on that flop that you can beat right now. as mentioned, KQ is the only possibility, but KQ isn't likely to bet this turn,.

if you're really lucky, you'll get to a free showdown. otherwise, barring a free river and a boat, i think you have to give up.
-[4h]-
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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Jun 02, 2005 3:31 pm

With both callers in, I think you're pretty much done with it. Logical would be to me for the first caller to have 44 and the second KJ (although it seems like every time I think something is logical, they turn over a completely different hand), although of course AQ is also in the mix, too.

I'm also not at all sure about the checkraise here, ice, but if you do want to go that way, I really think it was excessively large. To require a full 2:1 call from the initial bettor, you would only need to go pot plus 3 times the bet, or $140 (on that he has to call $110 for a pot of currently $220), and I'd say $120 is already plenty. By making the checkraise so large, I think you gain less information about what your opponents are holding because the bet looks so strange.

But really, unless you have some reason to believe that someone is definitely going to bet, I don't understand why you don't just bet it out around pot-size to begin with. If it's checked around, KJ is going to be very happy on this flop. Of course, KQ, possibly even QJ, and certainly AQ is going to suspect kicker problems with you in BB, so they'll presumably raise, as 44 might, too, although 44 might also flat call here. But you have much better chances in any case (except with a flat call from 44) of getting KJ out of the hand.

Anyhow, if all that is correct, you have 2 queens left in the deck, hence 8 instances of AQ and 8 of KQ over and against only 6 possible 44 hands. So, if you bet out and get raised, I think it might be worth moving in. If you bet out and get 2 flat calls, then you can lay it down without nearly as much trouble on that turn. I really do think that turn is pretty much the end of your hand. Whether after a checkraise or any of the above "bet out sequences" with 2 callers, I think you're really wasting your money firing out another turn bet at all (although it's much less clear to me after the excessive checkraise--it's vaguely possible that you're actually ahead still, but I doubt it).
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 3:49 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Jun 02, 2005 6:31 pm

Yeah, you're right on the $150. I forgot to add in player #2. I don't think that's out of line in terms of quantity.

My main objection is still the potential of giving a free card with the check.
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Postby Mad Genius » Thu Jun 02, 2005 7:34 pm

Your play looks a lot like you flopped a random 2pair out of the BB (T4, Q4, QT any of these) so for the two players to have called you they either had that beat (QT, 44, TT) or in the case of the second guy, had a draw (KJ, J9). I suppose it's also possible that EP has AA and has a hard time letting go of them but I find that to be doubtful, and even so, you are now behind. I really don't see how you can be ahead of both players so I check and hope for a free card, and I'm only calling a bet that gives me good odds to draw for my boat, since you do have some implied odds if you hit.
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