A couple hands that happened to me today:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ .5 BB (9 handed)

UTG+1 ($34)
MP1 ($47.5)
Hero ($48.25)
MP3 ($59.05)
CO ($58.65)
Button ($46.5)
SB ($51.45)
BB ($30.5)
UTG ($29.5)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , . SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) , , (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $1.5, Hero raises to $4, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $2.50.

Turn: ($10) (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $6, UTG+1 raises to $15, Hero calls $9.

River: ($40) (2 players)
UTG+1 calls $14.50 (All-In), Hero calls $14.50.

Final Pot: $69

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has 9d 8d (straight, ten high).
Hero has Th Tc (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $69.


Another one, different result, same idea.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ .5BB (8 handed)

MP2 ($50)
Hero ($47.5)
Button ($53.7)
SB ($51.77)
BB ($51.1)
UTG ($49.5)
UTG+1 ($53.75)
MP1 ($14.2)

Preflop: Hero is CO with , . MP2 posts a blind of $0.5. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 (poster) raises to $1, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $1.25, 1 fold, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: ($5.50) , , (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 bets $3, Hero raises to $6, SB calls $6, MP2 calls $45.50 (All-In), Hero calls $40 (All-In), SB calls $42.50.

Turn: ($148.50) (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($148.50) (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $148.50

Results in white below:
MP2 has Jc Jh (two pair, jacks and eights).
Hero has Td Th (full house, tens full of eights).
SB has 7s 9s (straight, ten high).
Outcome: Hero wins $143.50. SB wins $5.


Basically, my point being, I don't see any way for me to get away from either of these hands, with top set, no matter what they hold I'm not a HUGE dog to anything, against a flopped straight or flush it's something like 65/35. So the question is: Is there anything that could convince you to fold top set on the flop?

Not on either of these 2 hands... The first hand, I would've pushed the turn instead of calling, and would gladly call hand 2, and against 2 players, would expect to lose a fair amount of time, but still no way I get away from it...

BTW... what the hell was JJ doing in the second hand...? Minraising PF isn't gonna chase anybody... He bets the flop, gets minraised (minraise=monster) and called, and then decides to push...??? Bad play, as he had to know you guys didn't BOTH have A10 or somethin...

I would fold top trips POSSIBLY on a flop like and 2 people goin allin ahead of me... I still may not, thinking I have some outs to boat up... Both of those hands are basically impossible to get away from, unless you're a hell of a lot better than I am...

Agreed with MVP. Go ahead and put the money in on the turn on hand #1. You wanna make him pay if he's drawing. If he has you beat..you still have outs to fill.

You can't get away from either of these hands.

Ok, in both of these hands there's a possible made straight staring at you on the flop. I'm just going to hypothesize that you have perhaps the one read more or less that I think is the most important one in NLHE: Do huge bets likely mean the nuts for this player or do they more likely mean a bluff or just "decent hand"?

If I do have some kind of read like that, I think I can actually lay down to the made straight on hand #2. Making your boat is 3:1, and he's not giving you odds. Interestingly, however, it's MP2 who's moving in with the overpair rather than SB with the made straight, who imo should have bet out upfront, even though almost no one does it. So, in actuality, I think your call was probably good here. You have no reason to believe that SB has the straight, and the guy who moves in doesn't have it.

In both of these cases, though, I'd raise a little harder with top set on the flop (hand #1 isn't bad, but I don't like the minimum raise on hand #2). With your smaller raise, you're really giving odds for straight DRAWS to call. Moreover, you allow your opponents to make a mistake. In hand #1, the straight allows you to draw, and you have a good one.

If they call a larger raise, I'm willing to more or less believe them on the made straight. I definitely check the turn on hand #1 and take my freecard. If you're still unconvinced that the straight is really there (and it is worth noting that it is on both of these hands), you can, I guess, make a crying call on the river if you want (Personally, I don't think I'd want to call any kind of sizeable river bet if the board hasn't paired). But what you're really looking for here imo is a straight that's unable to lay down on a paired board--a very common mistake but one that you don't adequately exploit in hand #1.

My main point, I suppose, is that you need to determine on the flop who is actually drawing, and it takes a fairly hefty raise to do that (I mean, you don't have to go crazy with it, but pretty serious). Almost everyone will then just flat call with the straight (bad play) and then continue to slowplay it (more bad play), then THEY are faced with a crying call on a paired board which they are very likely to make even if your bet is sizeable.

Both of these are easy when you look at EV.

Hand 1 you are up against a flopped atr8 maybe 3 out of 10, that means 7 out of ten times you are a big favroite vs any other hand, all - in is an easy +ev play

Hand 2 you are up against the str8 maybe 2 in 10 since less people play 79 than 910 in the previous hand, after the turn its probably 1 in 100 that he is playing 88. So after the turn you have a huge +ev.

Ais... I LOVE your analyses, as always, but think I agree w/ Rhound on this one... I think that sometimes, your opinions are based a little bit on results... Not intended as a shot, as GOD knows I blow chunks at NL poker, but you're seriously telling me that, on the 2nd hand, you would be afraid that MP2, who raised PF (although it was a crappy minraise) MAY have 97, and you would consider folding...? I mean, if that's the case, you must fold trips like 50% of the time on the flop... how often do you flop trips w/ a board like K72 when you have Ks... Not nearly as often as you do 1086 w/ 2 suited, I would imagine, as that's what usually happens to me...

You said "Ok, in both of these hands there's a possible made straight staring at you on the flop. I'm just going to hypothesize that you have perhaps the one read more or less that I think is the most important one in NLHE: Do huge bets likely mean the nuts for this player or do they more likely mean a bluff or just "decent hand"? "... I think the opposite would have to be true... I would have to be 1000000000000% that he's hit the straight to let this go... Both of these hands are pretty close to as non-threatening a board as you can see w/ trips... I think your case would hold a little more water if, in either of these cases, the board was 3 to a flush... As least that would make you afraid of ...

Sorry if this seems like I'm rippin into you Ais, as you know I'm all about love, but I just don't see laying down either of these hands for ANY reason...

I feel like I'm being misinterpreted here. First, in light of the betting, you need to FIND OUT whether you're up against the made straight or not and yourself bet in such a way as to gain this information. Second, you need to deny odds to straight draws, which are a threat to your hand.

I'm not advocating laying down any set on those boards on the flop. What I am advocating is checking the turn when you're behind in the hand, have position to get a free card with 10 outs and will get excellent implied odds if you make your draw.

As to Rhound's analysis of frequencies, I think it's probably less than that just in terms of what's out there, but the betting is supposed to give you a better idea of whether it's there or not. Even if it's only 5% in both cases, what you're NOT supposed to do is move in as underdog when you ARE up against the made straight and win only the pot that's already there when you're ahead.

Just to clarify this a little more, I'd like to thoroughly analyse what I think is "best play" for all players on both of these hands. I did say I was capable of laying down a set on this kind of coordinated board, but, please remember, I did also say that I think the call of the all-in was a good call on hand #2. I don't think it's a good play for the straight to just move right in either, although some people do it and, I'm sure, sometimes make money at it.

Anyhow, these are both pretty rich hands in terms of analysis, so I'd like to hear some other opinions as well. Here's my opinion of just pretty much correct ABC play, which imo is also normally very profitable (presumably not if you're sitting at a table full of pros, but I haven't really had that problem yet).

Hand #1:

9-handed
UTG+1 limps
CO calls with TT
SB completes for .50 with 98s.

Flop pot is thus $2, and the flop is now 6h7hTd. Here's what I think really should happen.

SB bets out something like $1.50. Assuming BB or UTG+1 fold (which they may not), then TT, which is where the real battle is, raises to about $6. SB re-raises to $18, and CO calls (my suggestion--I think TT can start to think he may be behind at this point, but I think it's too much hand to fold just yet despite getting incorrect odds for filling up on the turn).

It is also worth noting that any actions here from BB or UTG+1 simply add dead money to the 2 serious hands we have in this pot.

Now, on the turn, we have a pot of something like $36, with about $30 remaining in each of the relevant stacks. When it comes 2c, an obvious blank, I think SB needs to move in. And, at this point, after this whole betting sequence, I'm just folding my TT. I really do figure I'm behind at that point. But again, SB can easily make a mistake here by checking to the TT, who has also shown enormous strength and I think has pretty clearly represented a set. Then TT gets the free card to the river and can outdraw the straight if he's given the opportunity. But, at least as far as I'm concerned, TT has to know after the flop betting that he needs to improve in order to win this pot.

SB also had another opportunity for a mistake, as did TT, on the flop. SB could have failed to re-raise, then TT has 2 chances to counterfeit the straight. And TT also needed to raise the flop bet to avoid dragging along something like AhXh. Moreover, 76 needs runner-runner to quads in order to win but still has to call, as does AT, as unlikely as that hand is given the 3 tens already accounted for.

Anyhow, I'll be interested to hear what you guys think about my suggestion for "correct play" all the way. To me, it really just illustrates, particularly on interesting hands like these, how departures from correct play typically just miss opportunities to outplay your opponents on various streets. These are really the kinds of hands where you end up gaining a lot of EV against bad players, I think--or am I playing them badly myself?

Hand #2, definitely another interesting one, with 3 serious hands bidding for the pot.

Betting seems pretty clear PF, and I like the way all known hands played it, although I certainly don't think it would be a mistake either for 97s in SB to lay down to the raise.

Ok, so the flop comes T86 rainbow. Here, I think SB's check was completely idiotic. Admittedly, if the raiser has AK, he'll probably lay down to the bet, but SB just got a GREAT flop for taking the stack from AA, as did TT.

So, the pot is now $5.50. I think SB should bet out something like $4 with the straight. Now, JJ is pretty much just as good as AA on this flop and must raise. So, a good JJ would raise here, I would think, to something like $12. The fact that it was JJ rather than the straight who moved in illustrates another mistake, at least in my mind. I think on flops like this you'll USUALLY find 2-pair or overpair hands as the ones moving in and NOT the straight, who's usually making the contrary mistake of slowplaying.

Here, I'm not exactly sure what I think TT should really do. I kind of waver between a flat call, raising to $20 and just moving in (basically, if you raise to more than $20, you might as well go ahead and move in to get free cards all the way to the river). I almost think I like the flat call the best. Essentially, JJ has accurately represented his overpair and has only 2 outs on you (if he hits on the turn, he admittedly will probably take my stack). But I'd also like to see what SB does. If he calls or raises, he's got 2 pair (not a danger) or the straight (a danger, but the set has outs). Maybe the raise to $20 is the way to go here.

Again, you allow a bunch of mistakes that way. JJ may still call or move in, and the straight may just flat call. Anyhow, imo the straight should move in there, and 2 pair in SB should fold. Hmmmm... I think that actually speaks more for a flat call, allowing SB to move in on 2 pair and/or himself flat call on the straight. Anyhow, if you just flat call here, I think you'll get the stack of 2 pair and maybe that of JJ (if he doesn't have sense enough to realize that he's behind) at the risk of losing your own if JJ improves (I don't think there's any real way to determine whether you're up against JJ, QQ, KK or AA, so I don't see laying down the set to the raiser under any circumstances, regardless of what comes on the turn).

This one really is a lot more complicated, with 3 players in the hand. JJ is really probably the sucker here if he proceeds any further with his hand, as tempting as it may look. To be completely clear, I don't see laying down the TT on this flop regardless of betting sequence because I think 2 pair is going to be the hand that really is likely to bet really big from SB. I do think I'd start fearing a straight if, as TT, I decided to flat call, then SB made it $20. JJ should lay down but probably won't, and, as long as he's in the hand, you're going to be getting good odds on filling up. And, even if JJ, did fold to the raise, I think you need to at least see the turn with any set on that board.

Sorry to get so complicated on this one--just seems to me like the hand itself becomes pretty complex from the standpoint of "correct play" with 3 players all having pretty nice hands on this flop. Anyone have any clear suggestions?

Basically, with the betting sequence I give, I'm in a bit of a dilemma still, as to whether TT should minimum raise JJ (which, with bet and raise, is already a pretty decent raise) or just flat call in order to give SB an opportunity to act.