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Weak?

Postby JJSCOTT2 » Fri Jun 03, 2005 3:57 pm

Villain has been at the table for 1 hand, I got no read whatsoever, I find out in the next hour or so that he's in the 80+ VP$IP but that doesn't help me at the time of this hand. I felt like there was a decent chance I could be ahead here, and I had a few outs to be ahead even if I wasn't but something just didn't feel right to me. The way I see it there are just so many situations where I can comfortably get money in the middle that I don't need to be messing with anything that scares me this much. What do you think?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ .5BB (7 handed)

Hero ($51.6)
MP2 ($26.4)
CO ($44.65)
Button ($98.2)
SB ($42.6)
BB ($48)
UTG ($49.5)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with [Ah], [As]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 4 folds, BB calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75.

Flop: ($7) [Jd], [Qh], [Kh] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $6.65, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: $13.65

Results in white below:
No showdown. UTG wins $13.65.
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Postby iceman5 » Fri Jun 03, 2005 4:08 pm

That flop sucks. Let him have it.
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Postby devilmollusk » Fri Jun 03, 2005 5:10 pm

I would like to respectfully disagree with Iceman here. That bet screams Top Pair. I think you have him beat right there, plus I think you are probably the favorite to win the hand from there. If a 10 hits it is a split or you win outright. I would only card I would really fear there is a heart or a K, and if a heart hits on 4th you still have outs to win the hand.

I think getting all your money in heads up against someone who bet this flop is a +ev play.
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Postby kennyg » Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:35 pm

I might raise the flop...but that's the only action I would even try. After that I would hope to check it down.

An outright fold here is fine.
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jun 04, 2005 7:40 am

So you think he called the raise with KT, K9 or worse? KQ or KJ is much more likely.

Youre not a huge favorite over KT and its going to cost you a bundle to find out.
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Postby devilmollusk » Mon Jun 06, 2005 11:15 am

I think AK is as likely as KQ or KJ. I rarely see people lead out with 2 pair online. I know that is the right play, but you rarely see it at these limits. And also there are far more people who call raises with any A or K than those who lead out with 2 pair. If he check-raised or made a min-bet into this pot I would be more worried. I would either raise this pot or call and see what he does on 4th street. I also think you can't discount the power of position in this situation.
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Postby AlexMR » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:15 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:53 pm

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