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three 2/4 hands for analysis please.

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three 2/4 hands for analysis please.

Postby Stelvask » Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:14 am

hand 1: i have no read on UTG. never seen or played with him before.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed)

MP3 ($432.30)
CO ($634.45)
Button ($210.35)
SB ($386)
Hero ($433.20)
UTG ($394)
UTG+1 ($816.60)
MP1 ($405.30)
MP2 ($427.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with [6h], [9h].
UTG calls $4, 6 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($12) [8h], [Qh], [7s] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, UTG raises to $36, SB folds, Hero raises to $100, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $148

opponent is slightly loose aggressive. VP$IP of 28. on the flop i smooth called his raise with the intention of check raising the turn (mistake?), but then with the number of draws on board on the turn, i was too scared of him checking behind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($337.60)
UTG+1 ($829.75)
MP1 ($339.30)
MP2 ($399.50)
MP3 ($477.75)
CO ($633.15)
Button ($350.50)
Hero ($396)
BB ($377.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with [5h], [5s].
UTG calls $4, 6 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($12) [Ad], [5d], [3h] (3 players)
Hero bets $8, BB folds, UTG raises to $16, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($44) [Kh] (2 players)
Hero bets $50, UTG raises to $100, Hero raises to $376, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $520


hand 3: new opponent again. sorry for the ackward set up here, the hand history was screwed up and i had to manually edit it. i didn't feel like fixing the colors.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (8 handed)

($625.90)
UTG ($368)
UTG+1 ($145.65)
MP1 ($345.20)
MP2 ($226.20)
CO ($206)
Button ($380)
SB ($561.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [Ac][Ad]

/edit -- hand history screwed up.

Hero limps. UTG +1 limps. folds to the SB who limps. BB checks.

Flop: ($16) [8c], [4c], [Qc] (8 players)
SB checks, checks, Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls $12, SB folds, folds.

Turn: ($30) [Ks] (6 players)
Hero bets $24, UTG+1 calls $24.

River: ($78) [8d] (6 players)
hero checks, UTG+1 bets $60, Hero calls $60.

Final Pot: $198
Last edited by Stelvask on Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:27 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Postby Rhound50 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:32 am

I love the play in the first hand, though it scares me to make this play vs a calling station, you are in a coin flip situation vs top pair. The reason I really like this play is it screams stregnth, a bet and a big reraise screams I'm proteting a monster vs the flush draw. Even if you get a call you ar 50% or better vs everything but a set.

2nd hand- is well played too, after that turn cards it is time to get all the money in, there are now a ton of scare cards on the river, other than a board pair almost every card seems to hit one draw or another.

3rd hand is hard to understand what happened, I dont see a hero in there anywhere, did you fold??
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Postby Stelvask » Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:34 am

yeah rhound, i'm fixing that. i'm utg, but the hand history is screwed up for some reason.
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Postby Mad Genius » Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:44 am

Hand 1 I like it. I'll mix it up and either call or re-raise but quite frankly I don't see how either option can be bad. I expect FE to be very high in that situation with most players mucking QJ-AQ there and maybe even KK-AA, as well as bluffs. If you get called you have many outs to hit, although the one thing that may get you in trouble is if he has Axhh and a heart hits.

Hand 2 if you are gonna lead the turn like that I prefer a flop re-raise. Make it about 60 straight because if he is a smart player he is letting go of AQ/AJ whether you re-raise the flop or bet the turn. The problem with the stopngo here is that if a diamond hits its not only an action killer but also he could have been buying a free card on the flop with something like [Jd][Td] and just hit it. And if by the off-chance this guy is a moron and decides to overplay AK-AJ then you might get an allin re-raise from him. Same goes for a set of 3s, and if he limped AA preflop...well then there is nothing you can do. Getting to the turn as you did I like the fast-play a lot.

Hand 3 I think I like about a $40 bet and fold to a raise. As I was watching the hand it seemed to me like he had the Kc and even if he had KcQx you are now beating him. Initially I thought the river call is one you have to make since it's hard to put him on an 8 but the more I thought about it it seems unlikely that you have him beat. I didn't put him on what he had at all, but based on the fact that if he has the Kc he probably isn't value betting there, and there are no other real draws. I can't imagine him calling the flop with a naked Jc or worse unless he at least had a Q with it, in which case I doubt he's betting the river anyway. It would look to me like he was slowplaying a smaller flush, although I suppose a hand like [JcTx is possible. I think ideally a fold is the best move here although when you are in the middle of the hand it's hard to think about everything that's going on and I think I would almost always make this call too . I mean it's certiainly not a terrible call, if it's a losing play it's not by much I'm sure, it just feels like the guy has a hand when he calls you twice then makes a fairly big value bet on the river.
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Postby kennyg » Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:03 am

I like the play in all 3 hands actually.
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Postby Kalle » Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:46 am

#1. This is not the first time a big draw has been posted here and there are differnet ways to play it (and some disagreement).
What was your plan if he calls your reraise and the turn is a blank? I like getting all the money in on flop but if your opponent just calls that's not going to happen.
I prefer just calling his raise or go all in. Or checkraising instead and then lead the turn (not Q).

2. Two minimumraises!! We dont have the nuts, we should fold... No. The 2. minimumraise looks like a decent hand that wants a cheap showdown. A good hand makes a bigger raise here. I like the way you played it.
But if he is a good player he doesnt call with anything you beat.

3. There are no draws that didnt get there. I like a blocking bet, fold to a raise.
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Postby Mad Genius » Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:17 pm

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Postby Rhound50 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 1:30 pm

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Postby Kalle » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:11 pm

I did some EV-calculations. If UTG has AQ with no heart it is -EV for him to call (-$12) if Stelvask goes all in. If he has AA, Q8, 87 etc. it is +EV for him to call. But it’s close.

If hero goes all in, it looks exactly like what it is: a big draw. A raise to $100 looks more like a made hand.
But If Stelvask goes all in I don’t think UTG is going to think: “That big raise looks like a bluff, let’s find out if I’m right. It will only cost me a full buy in.” He will not call with more hands. He will be scared and fold all one pair hands very quickly. But if Hero only raises to $100 it is possible that UTG will call and evaluate on turn. And if he thinks Stelvask will give him his stack, he will also call with a flush draw.

I don’t think there is less folding equity in an all in raise. It looks suspicious but it’s still $350. And if hero raises to $100 and UTG goes all in, hero will call anyway. It’s not like risking $300 unnecessarily.

If Stelvask raises to $100 and UTG calls, UTG will be able to get away from the hand if the turn is a heart. And if Stelvask misses he will either checkfold/checkcall or get his money in as a dog if he bets and UTG decides that he has the best hand.
Now instead of getting all the $ in as a small favourite, Stelvask gets $100 in as a favourite and $300 in as a dog. Or he has to fold his monster draw after committing 25% of his stack. I don’t like any of this.

I really think pushing is better than raising to $100. But we will probably never agree here. What happened in hand 3?
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Postby Mad Genius » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:38 pm

Guy had Q8.
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Postby kidluckee » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:05 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Jun 09, 2005 7:43 am

Hand 1: I like your play but am also interested in what to do on the turn if it's a blank. Actually, I feel like you've represented a set here, and I really hate playing these draws out of position. By the way, I agree that all-in is excessive, but I think you could have raised to more than $100. I probably would have gone about $140. I really do prefer to take it down at this point rather than trying to hit the draw, even though you presumably are the favorite. As I say, I don't know exactly what to do on a blank turn if he calls. Objectively, you have to check, and if he's good, he then knows exactly what you have.

Hand 2: I like this one and also much prefer this play of the set to checkraising the turn under any circumstances.

Hand 3: Hmmm... another case of the failed limp-re-raise, I assume. If you overbet the pot here, to which I don't really object, I wouldn't really make it quite so huge, and I honestly prefer right at pot. Your hand is just barely better than AQ at this point, although I have real trouble telling myself so when I look at my AA. Really, I wonder whether one shouldn't view AA in such cases as something kind of like bottom two pair in such cases--or, I guess as it objectively is, between bottom two and AQ.

I really think it's the initial overbet that gets things messed up here because you don't give Q8 the opportunity to raise you. I also think I'd slow down on the turn. While with AA the temptation is very difficult to avoid, it feels to me like what is happening is rather similar to KK or QQ having such a nice hand that got spoiled by the A overcard but can't let it go in time. The problem with AA is that there's no real scare card, hence much more difficult to recognize its vulnerabilities.

Whether or not the limp-re-raise was worth trying here, it didn't work, and I think in such cases, one needs to avoid overplaying the hand.
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Postby Stelvask » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:27 pm

er, ais. i didn't realize this in my original post. the flop bet wasn't an overbet. that's a screwed up hand history. the pots $16 there with 4 players in it.
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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:55 pm

Sorry, stel, my bad. I think I was somehow reading $6 rather than $16...

So, I guess I like your play there after all--except calling the river. Not to say I wouldn't make that mistake myself, though...

I still do have the nagging question of what to do on the draw in hand 1 if you do get a caller... check-fold the turn without improvement or odds to the draw? I guess that's really about all you can do.
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Postby Stelvask » Thu Jun 09, 2005 2:36 pm

it did say $6. i went back an edited it just to make you feel silly.

I think i made a mistake with my large bet on the turn. still, when he smooth called it again i rulled out the flopped flush (because of my Ac).I thought he could be betting a hand like [Kc]Qx on the river. though as it turns out he had a weirdly played flopped two pair.

I guess i felt overly confident in my hand because i held the nut flush draw. Also, as a rule of thumb (and generally a good one i might add), i view almost all people who buy in short as morons. i felt there were too many hands out there i could beat, especially since i had made aces up by the river. It's not like he was calling me down with a naked 8 there.

I'm still not sure if it was a bad call. it ended up being wrong, as his Q8 certainly outflopped me, but against a short stack who hasn't shown an ounce of aggression until i checked, i felt there were enough hands out there that i could still beat to make the call worthwhile. i have to admit, i'm somewhat suprised that the majority of the responses disagree with this.

Also, on thand 1, assuming he calls my raise, i'm not checking the turn and giving up on it. the pot will be over $200 at this point. if i didn't improve, and barring a Q on the turn, i'm betting $150 on the turn. assuming he calls the pot would then be $500 going to the river.if he pushes i'd have to double check my odds (i'm too tired to do so now) and decide if i'm calling. We'd both be in for $250. assuming i miss i can check fold. if i hit i push obviously. with my hand as well disguesed as it is, i'd be pushing inf or my last $250 fully expecting him to call after commiting so much of his stack.
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