by Nashvegas » Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:53 am
Quick math, if you assume he has a set -- you have 2 set-outs and 9 flush-outs, there's 45 unknown cards, that's 3:1 odds to hit on the turn. There's about $750 in there, you've got to call off $275 or so. Zero implied odds on the flush, OK implied odds on the set. You aren't a lock to win even if you hit flush (house redraw).
Well, that's all I could think of in 30 seconds. I would've folded if I was sure he had a set. I don't think it's terribly close either, once you consider that your outs are mitigated by the full house possibilities. He's probably too good to give you his whole stack 100% of the time that the ace hits.
However, if you do decide to see the turn, I would recommend raising over the top. Here's the argument for that being better than calling:
(1) If you call and miss, you have the odds to call an all-in bet to see the river I think, so all your money goes into the pot anyway unless the board pairs on the turn.
(2) If you happen to be wrong about him having a set, or even if he has bottom set, he would likely fold and give you the pot right there. That doesn't have to happen very often at all for it to outweigh any edge that just calling has over pushing all in.
Conclusion, folding is better than raising, raising is better than calling.
<<edit follows>>
Now realizing that there's 1250 at risk instead of 1000, I would just fold for sure. Calling and raising are probably about the same EV in the long run, but Full House redraw outs for him negate some of your flush outs.
Nashvegas