$5/$10 NL

4 limpers to me and I raise to $60 in the SB with [Ah].. Kirderf is in the BB. He is probably the best $1000NL player there is. Ive seen his win rate stats from over 25K hands and they are incredible.

2 other guys call as well.

Pot $250. Flop [8d][3d]

I bet $150, Kiderf raises to $420. Hes not calling $60 preflop with [Qd]. I bet my entire bankroll he has a set. What do you do? Its folded back to me.

Well if he really has a set and assuming you have 1k+ stacks then you don't have the odds to draw, and with "draw" I really mean push since the options are push or fold here unless you want to try to force him off his set. So the ABC game would be to fold, I guess, even though I myself would push here every time (then again, maybe that is why I play $20 and $50).

The question is if you can make him fold a set by representing either TT or AKs. If you think you can... I would probably advocate a smooth call, then a RR-allin on the turn unless the board pairs. The problem is that I don't know your stack sizes and he might be committed by then. Also, this pretty much depends on him having 88 or 33.

what r your and his remaing chip count after his raise to $420?

you have to at least call - the pot is $820 ish? and its $270 to you. id call, unles that leaves with too few chips. then just push in.

if hes good he knows you prob have an overpair and might be willing to lay it down to a good player. if hes got the set uve got the odds to call right? any A or diamond - w/o board pairing and your hand should be the winner....

just my 2 cents...

I started with $1250 and he has me covered

Quick math, if you assume he has a set -- you have 2 set-outs and 9 flush-outs, there's 45 unknown cards, that's 3:1 odds to hit on the turn. There's about $750 in there, you've got to call off $275 or so. Zero implied odds on the flush, OK implied odds on the set. You aren't a lock to win even if you hit flush (house redraw).

Well, that's all I could think of in 30 seconds. I would've folded if I was sure he had a set. I don't think it's terribly close either, once you consider that your outs are mitigated by the full house possibilities. He's probably too good to give you his whole stack 100% of the time that the ace hits.

However, if you do decide to see the turn, I would recommend raising over the top. Here's the argument for that being better than calling:
(1) If you call and miss, you have the odds to call an all-in bet to see the river I think, so all your money goes into the pot anyway unless the board pairs on the turn.
(2) If you happen to be wrong about him having a set, or even if he has bottom set, he would likely fold and give you the pot right there. That doesn't have to happen very often at all for it to outweigh any edge that just calling has over pushing all in.


Conclusion, folding is better than raising, raising is better than calling.

<<edit follows>>

Now realizing that there's 1250 at risk instead of 1000, I would just fold for sure. Calling and raising are probably about the same EV in the long run, but Full House redraw outs for him negate some of your flush outs.

If I push all in and he calls, I m getting 1:8-1 on my money. If he has a set (and Im 100% sure he does), Im a 1:9-1 dog. So its very very close.

He might fold 33 fearing TT. I doubt it, but that little extra EV makes it +EV to push I think. Or at least zero EV. I think calling is really bad.

You say he is the best 1000NL player you know... to me that means he is also capable of making a semi-bluff here believing your bet to be a weak continuation. What are the chances he is representing the flush? Hands I would put him on:

KdKx
QdQx
TT
88
AxKd?

How sure are you he doesn't hold any of the non-set holdings?

I think there is value in calling here, though if you are that sure he has a set you are justified in laying this down. I think pushing is also a very viable option, since he can't rule you out having the nut flush at this point. I think against a very good player being aggressive in this situation is +ev.

If your read is that strong, trust it and fold. Pretty easy...?

I agree with kent. If your as sure as you say you are, then you must fold. However, I beg to differ that he must have a set, not all the big winners play exactly by a specific strategy and he could have KK or QQ like others stated. If i were you my money is in the middle but then again I like to gamble it up.

A top NL player will not call flat call $60 with KK when there are 3 or 4 limpers and he knows a couple of them may call the raise as well.

Anyway, I knew he had the set like I said and pushed all in anyway. He had 33 and I missed my 11 outs.

I think its very close between a fold an a push.