Thought I would use a couple of real world blackjack example to see if I can reach some of you. I’ve just been reinstated to a high stakes blackjack team where our ev is about $450/hr and our sd is $5500/hr.

Over the past 700 hours of play or around 100,000 hands played, our earnings are flat. We should be up over $300,000, but we’re not. Now we’re talking about a hand full of the best blackjack players on earth, so what’s going on?

Let’s go back a couple of years when the same team was losing $170,000 after about 1500 hours of play. (180,000 hands played). The team would recover and ultimately beak a bank. As of now the team is up almost 2 mil after 4 years or almost at expectation. It was like jumping through 1000 flaming hoops, but the math did kick in. Mathematicians call it regression to the mean.

How many of you are willing to continue playing poker if you hit a 50,000 hand downswing? Think it can’t happen? Think again, because if you play long enough, it will happen. So when I read things like won’t play that site anymore because I kept losing to bad beats or I’m on a 10K hand losing streak on that site, well it’s just wrong thinking.

The more poker you play the more you’ll test new swings both high and low.

-GeoC

I don't know much about Blackjack but isn't the "maximum" EV there about 1.5% assuming you're using the best card-counting system? It would seem to me that the edge of a good poker player is a lot higher, thus the variance should be a lot lower.

>I don't know much about Blackjack but isn't the "maximum" EV there about 1.5%.

A straight counter is happy with about a 1% edge.
A good shuffle tracker can see up to 2 to 3%.
Someone who is an ace sequencer can get up to 3%.
A good hole carder can capture 4 to 6%.

Notice I used a (50,000 hand relating to poker) to account for the differences.

Real World Poker example. The first week of June was my first losing week in 8 months. Yes on PP.
I've been bucking heads with a couple of maniacs. Now when I feel I had the best of it, I got my money all-in. 13 out of 15 times I was at least 70/30 or better, yet only won 3 out of 15. I lost more in that week than ever before, but since I've recovered about 3/4ths of the loss. For what it's worth, I can tell any of you what your probablilities of losing after n hours are if you will supply me with ev/sd numbers per hour. I think you'll be amazed at the results.

-GeoC

How can I get you this numbers???

AlexMR

GeoC,

I gave probability theory in college (I am a civil engineer) but I dont think calculating your ev and Variance by hand is the best way to go. Can I find those numbers is PT?

Let me know.


AlexMR

>Ugh...I disagree with you 100%. I understand what you're saying..but you're missing the emotional and mental side of a losing streak. In iceman's article called "anatomny of a losing streak" he talks about compounding errors because you are trying to catch up...or your mental state isn't good enough to play the "A" game.

Varience is varience...but when you hit a losing streak of big magnitude..it will certainly take you off your "A" game. Which in turn leads to losing more money on stupid plays..and making your varience higher then before.

If you look at a prior post of mine you'll see having your A game was one of my criteria.

>I gave probability theory in college (I am a civil engineer) but I dont think calculating your ev and Variance by hand is the best way to go. Can I find those numbers is PT?

Then you would be familiar with the Bionomial Distribution, which suits the game of poker perfectly. PT gives sd per 100. To get ev one needs to know how much is wagered per 100 hands then divide that into win per 100.

Can I find those numbers in PT?


Forget my earlier reply on ev. You can find the per/100 ev/sd #'s on PT's session page. Go to Session tab then detail and you'll have it.

GeoC....

I was using Hypergeometric distribution to calculate probabilities in holdem. Why is it binomial distribution? I will get my book but I think it is because of the sustitution of seen cards, right?

I didnt remember that part...

I will send you my SD and in a private message. I am not playing now but there is something with party...they dont want me to win for now!!! I went to bodog on monday and I did pretty good there. The main thing on this losing streak I am at, it s not only the bad cards, it´s that I am pushing in when having the nuts and I m getting outdrawn soooooooo many times. I was just checking my mail and came to check what was your response..


AlexMR