by Aisthesis » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:46 am
Hmmmmm...
Unless it's a very loose re-raiser (JJ/QQ or worse), I doubt I'd see the flop here--pretty much in line with Kenny's analysis. Anyhow, I'd have to have some kind of read in order to see the flop here, although AA/KK become less likely, admittedly. If it's a loose raiser capable of laying down, coming over the top is also an option to be considered, I think. Basically, PF, you've got a full 6 instances each of JJ and QQ, 9 instances of AK, and 3 each of AA/KK, then lots of instances of complete trash as well. I think I'd have to have SB somewhere in my "maniac" box just to make the flat call, anyway (if you flat call and hit, it's going to be very hard to make JJ-KK pay you anything otherwise).
In actuality, I think the re-raiser probably has AK of some sort (maybe also JJ, and I guess there's still one instance of AA out there, too). If he's halfway sane, I can't see him going that far out on a limb with KK or QQ. I mean, what on earth does he think you're calling a re-raise and then a flop bet with?
So, all things considered, I don't really mind the flat call on the flop. JJ and AA certainly aren't laying down, and probably not AK either. KK and QQ might think you're drawing to the flush and bet the turn again (so, I suppose that's a reason why those hands might have continued on the turn). But KK and QQ only have 2 outs anyway. And I think you really want AK to continue on the turn because your AK is a much better one here--it's either a split pot or you win.
The only real problem with the flat call is if the turn pairs the board and he has AA or JJ (although if he has either of those hands, it's also much less likely for the board to pair), so, I don't know, I guess if you do see the flop, raising him to all-in right there isn't a bad play either. I think I'd probably go with the flat call still, but then the real question becomes whether or not you're going to proceed if the board pairs on the turn. I'd have a lot of trouble laying it down at that stage, as deep as you're into it. But I'd also hate to be drawing dead to the flush... perhaps still worth the risk, since I think AK is still his most likely hand here.