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TP2K, bet into on Turn ($25 6-max)

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TP2K, bet into on Turn ($25 6-max)

Postby MTPaid » Sun Sep 09, 2007 7:42 pm

SB is 24/12 56 WTSD after 53 hands. I can't remember seeing him do anything specific that caught my attenion.


6-handed
[Kc][Qc] OTB ($27.75)

UTG limps, 1 fold, CO limps, I raise to $1.35, SB calls, everyone else folds

[5d][4h][Ks] Pot $3.45
SB checks, I bet $2.75, SB calls

[2s] Pot $8.95
SB bets $6
I have $23.65 left, SB covers.

Range:
- Set (55/44), Top pair (KJs/KQ), Draw (76s). I'm 60% against these hands.
- I figure he'd 3-bet AK here, but there could be a small chance he has this hand too. I'm crushed (13%) vs AK.
- There's always a decent chance of a bluff. I'll say 10% but that may even be conservative in these games. I'm 83% against a random hand.
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Postby Zuccala » Sun Sep 09, 2007 10:26 pm

2008 Goals:

1. Make $40K by year end.
2. Play at least 100hrs a month.
3. Read 5-10 new Poker Books w/ notes.
4. Become regular at $2/$4 FR
5. Try some $5/$10 FR
6. Work on Game non-stop.
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Postby DoctorHandles » Sun Sep 09, 2007 11:26 pm

The better player should win the race. Always.
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Postby stickdude » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:20 am

For those saying call, do you call a shove on a blank river? You'll have $17.65 behind in a $20.95 pot. If you would call a river shove, why wouldn't a raise all-in on the turn be better since you'd at least have some fold equity?

And if you wouldn't call a shove on the river, why bother to call the turn? What card are you hoping to see on the river?
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Postby PhilipJWitow » Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:52 am

I don't think AK is part of his range here? He didn't re-raise pre-flop, he didn't re-raise flop, why would he suddenly start betting the turn once a free card came that did not help him whatsoever?

I think I'd fold here. At best he's on a draw or bluffing, looks more like a draw with a lower pair here to me... I don't think medium PP's lead here, and your only real line is to call or fold. His 56 WTSD means he's a calling station so if he has anything he's calling, you can't raise him out of a draw or anything.

And a bet on the river will be a very very slim call for you to make where I don't think you're ahead. He can bluff with virtually any hand on the river unless a K or Q that shows up where you might be behind anyway to a set. Way too many things beat you, and the only things you beat are draws or medium PP's, which I think are unlikely and well the draws have a chance of beating you anyway. You're losing $4, or you're playing in a big big pot with TPGK. I'd pick a better spot rather than such a marginal one, or I'd really want to know more about this villian to call.
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Postby RedBarracuda » Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:18 am

Image
(6:35:48 PM) giantgrwth: I once beat up an attempted murderer, 25% true story
(6:35:59 PM) hard2tel45s: boxing?
(6:36:06 PM) giantgrwth: Yea
(6:36:14 PM) hard2tel45s: sweet
(6:36:30 PM) giantgrwth: He was my best friend too, lol
(6:36:48 PM) hard2tel45s: well u were in the crazy bin bro
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Postby MTPaid » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:48 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby NVG » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:21 pm

I like a call and see what he does on river. If the str8 draws hit, I fold to a river shove.
Calling a river shove on other river cards I think is very read dependent and there is not enough info here for me to say either way. However, I would be reluctant to call off my stack with top pair barring a better read (i.e. I have seen him push riv after missing draw). I think opponents at this level will more likely check or value bet on river with hands like KT, KJ, KQ rather than push; when they push they will generally have you beat here or air. Bottom line, calling pushes without a read will be -EV overtime against a typical opponent. Yeah, you might get bluffed occasionally but so what you don't have that much invested in the pot at this point. I think you will more than make up for that over time when he has one of the number of hands you beat here and he value bets river and you call or he ck calls your value bet.
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