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Strong Draw Too Aggressive?

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Strong Draw Too Aggressive?

Postby soweak » Thu Jun 09, 2005 7:25 pm

My reads on both players is that they both play too many hands (VP$IP around 35% for both) and they are both weak post flop. On the flop I am hoping my raise looks like a flopped two-pair or other monster hand. I do realize my FD/ISD isn't exactly nutty, but I figure against these two players that all my outs are live and I'm not drawing dead to a bigger flush or bigger straight (I even thought my jacks might be live).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed)

MP3 ($101.9)
CO ($195.5)
Button ($116.65)
SB ($190.4)
Hero ($162.96)
UTG ($53)
UTG+1 ($137.45)
MP1 ($115.05)
MP2 ($39.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with [9c], [Jc]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG raises to $2, 4 folds, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, SB (poster) calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($10) [2c], [Td], [Kc] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $3, CO calls $3, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $12, UTG calls $48 (All-In), CO folds, Hero calls $39.

Final Pot: $115

Immediatly after I raised, I thought I should've raised more. I think my FE was good anyways due to thier weakness, and should I run into a monster I still have good odds to draw out here with 12 clean outs and 3 possible tainted outs.


Comments and criticims appreciated.
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Postby kennyg » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:07 am

I think your play is fine..but that reraise call is very marginal. I would probably fold.
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Postby laynegt » Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:52 am

certainly the flop raise needs to be big enough so they can fold, especially b/c you're out of position, o/w just call there. the way it happened you more or less put in $51 to win $64. i think you're getting more than enough odds to call the all-in.
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Re: Strong Draw Too Aggressive?

Postby rdale » Fri Jun 10, 2005 11:41 am

The only reason I like this call is because of his stack size. Even if he has you beat, you have outs, and if there are aware players in the game it might induce action later, when you hold a very strong hand against a good hand.

These are the spots I like to gamble it up, when I have the person stacked with profit. I think Doyle's thinking is correct when playing with a possibly worse hand that has a ton of outs, is that if you built your stack up thru a series of smaller pots taking a 3:1 or even money shot at smaller stack is the correct way to gamble. I think you are likely to be even money or close enough against almost anything he holds except AQc, KK or TT.

If you lose, so be it, but I think only good can come of this hand regardless of the results.
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Postby poker2006 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:17 pm

-- andyG [Ah]
I try to learn something new every day. Winning comes by itself.
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