Blinds are 300/600/1200 and stacks are ~$500.000
Gold open-limps in EP with
![The Nine of Spades [9s]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/9s.gif)
![The Ten of Spades [Ts]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/Ts.gif)
Flop comes:
![The King of Spades [Ks]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/Ks.gif)
Everyone checks to Doyle, who bets $6.000 into the $8.000 pot. Folded around to Gold who flat calls.
Turn is the
![The Ace of Spades [As]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/As.gif)
Gold checks to Doyle, who bets $25.000 into the $20.000 pot. Gold gives a speach about how he said he was going to bluff etc and finally check/raises to $125.000. Doyle thinks for a while and then folds.
At first when I saw it I cringed and couldn't believe Doyle would fold there, but thinking about the hand from his perspective I am not so sure. Here's how I think it looks to him:
- Gold obviously has the flush, of this Doyle can be pretty sure, his play is 100% consistent with a flush.
- Gold is showing a huge amount of strength by his attempt to project weakness. It is obvious that he wants Doyle to call.
- There is ~$470.000 left at risk, Doyle has put in about $30.000 so far and has $470.000 left. If he calls he will probably face a huge bet on the river unless the board pairs or another spade comes (I think this is a raise/fold situation).
- There is no way Doyle can improve his hand or make the nuts. One of them is drawing dead.
- What flush can Jamie have? Well Doyle has the
![The Ten of Spades [Ts]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/Ts.gif)
![The Eight of Spades [8s]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/8s.gif)
![The Eight of Spades [8s]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/8s.gif)
QJs, QTs, Q9s, J9s, 97s and 96s, all of which fit Golds play and most of which have Doyle drawing dead.
- The argument against QJs, J9s and most of all QTs is that Gold would probably often bet the flop having flopped such a 'monster'. If I had to guess on one specific hand for him to have, it would probably be Q9s or J9s.
One argument for calling (as opposed to folding or raising), and the only one IMO, is to be able to use position on the river. If the board pairs or brings another Ace, Doyle might be able to get Jamie off his hand since he would be able to represent ither the
![The King of Diamonds [Kd]](https://pofex.com/images/smilies/Kd.gif)
So I guess I made a case for Doyle mucking. The most obvious (and my initial) case for not doing so is of course "OMG I HAVE A FLUSH GET IT IN AGAINST THIS SUPERFISH AND FISTPUMP!!". But then again, Doyles edge on this joker is pretty huge (and he has position) so there's always the "There will be a better spot..."-argument.