This was the day's hardest decision for me... any comments?

Empire $100 table.

I'm UTG with $121 and
I limp in for $1.
UTG+1 ($91) raises to $4
UTG+2 ($98) cold calls raise.
Folded to SB ($91) who completes.
BB folds
I complete for $3. (I'll assume that no-one suggests I do anything else).

So far so easy.

Flop . (Pot $17)

OK set with good chance of others hitting ace or king (or both).
SB checks.

Here's where I have a look at GT+ to see what to do.

UTG+1 (pre-flop raiser) is 27% Vp$iP, 13% PFR, PFA 2.4, WtsD 17% - seen 2 showdowns won both. Slight loser.
UTG+2 is 11%Vp$iP, 3% PFR, PFA 2, WtsD 25% (1/4) - seen 1 showdown won it
SB is 18% Vp$iP 18, 4% PFR, PFA 1.2, WtSD% 10% (2/19) - lost both.

OK I'm pretty certain with a PFA of 2.4 that UTG+1 who raised pre-flop will bet out after it's checked to him with one left to act. So I check. I am also a little worried that UTG +2 may have hit a set of aces or kings but think he would have re-raised the loose raiser UTG+1 pre-flop in early position so I'm probably good. It would be nice to see UTG+2 fold though.

UTG+1 bets $10. Good.

UTG+2 folds. Also good.

SB folds.

OK I'm heads up with a guy who is only beating me with AA or KK when he raises 1 in 6 hands. My read is I'm well ahead but I can't be sure that he has anything. There is no reason to think that he is trying to protect a flush draw and every reason for thinking he'll fire a second bullet at me if I he has an ace if I just flat call him (or really push on the turn if he has AK).

I flat call him $10

Turn . Pot $37.

Hmm..I've no reason to think he's hit but don't fancy giving him a free run at a 4th flush card on the river. He may also put me on a made flush slowplayed and so may check behind.

I bet $15 which would be enough to take it down if he has nothing but get called if he has an ace or similar or a 4 flush (I would check fold if a 4th flush card hit so he doesn't have correct odds to call a $15 bet on that basis). He calls.

Any thoughts - should I have pushed a pot sized bet at him here instead?
What do you put him on?
My best bet by now was AK with one of them a club, although with the flat call I can't discount a made near top flush. I really hope there isn't a club on the river.

River . Pot $67. I have$92 left. He has $62.

Phew no flush.

I push in $10. i know that this is weak but I'm not sure how much more he would call if he couldn't beat a flush and if he has a weak flush it might do as a blocking bet.

He pushes all in. Oops..

Now have I just invited a bluff or does he really have the flush or AA/KK?
My first thought is to look at his 2/2 showdowns won stat and think shit - gotta fold. But then I look at the odds I'm getting - It's $52 more and there is already $140 in. With a 4xBB pre-flop raise from EP I'm still thinking AK (not suited clubs) is a very likely holding or he might just be pushing with the correct read that I don't have a flush - I'm losing to AA, KK or any 2 clubs - what do you do?

Results later

I wouldve either led into him on the flop..or if I didnt and it was heads up like it turned out to be...I wouldve check raised him.

Im not all that worried about the flush, but I dont want HIM to shut down if a flush card hits. So if I check raise I get the best of both worlds. If he has 2 clubs, hes going to pay dearly to hit the flush and if he doesnt, he will either fold his junk or call (or reraise his AK or other big ace)

The way you played it, I check the turn and keep the pot small. If he checks behind thats fine. If he bets the turn and gives me anywhere near odds to call, then I'll call.

I also dont like your blocking bet. $10 into a $67 pot tells him you dont have the flush. Now he pushed in and you dont know if its AK, AQ, a flush or a bluff.

I would rather check/call a reasonable bet.

I think this is why 13% PFR is very good. And it´s even better if you combined it with 17% WtSD. Better for him that is.

This is tough. Definitely the hand of the day. I think the chances you are beat are high, but you are getting almost 3:1 with a set. Probably the best move is to fold but I am calling. I put him on suited connectors, with 13% PFR he raise them for sure. I dont think he would have bet 10 to a 17 pot if he had AA or KK. I would expect a pot sized bet on that flop with top or mid set. H e was giving 2.7:1 to a chaser plus the implied odds.

It s a set. I cant let them go. I think he has 8-9c and maybe was afraid of a higher flush at the turn. Uhmmm.... It could be so many things!! I would definitely call and pray for A , which is probable but.... it s either AK or a suited connector of spades.

Did you call? I think you did....

AlexMR

I think I would have played it a bit differently (with the luxury of sitting back and thinking about a hand without a 30 second timer or whatever).

I lead on the flop because, I can almost never bring myself to fold a flopped set. So if I'm not gonna fold, then put the pressure on and take it down (or at least make it expensive to draw). There is a flush draw out there. Does he probably have a flush draw... no. But, when I run into the guy who does, who raises KQs... I lose my stack because I have so much trouble folding sets. Thus, I lead even though it might cost me some value along the way.

I really like Ice's idea of a check raise. His weak bet at the flop felt like a blocking/weak kicker type bet. If he had AK wouldn't he bet it out with 2 clubs? I would have.

As you played it, I do check the river. I'm not sure if I'm beat or not so I try to keep the pot small.

Tim

We need a new term for what looks like a blocking bet but actually feigns weakness and results in an opponent pushing too hard over the top, as often happens like in this hand. Maybe an "invitation bet" ..... just pondering aloud.

How abolout a "poke"? That's what it feels like.