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Rasing T9s Iceman style, flop a big draw

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Rasing T9s Iceman style, flop a big draw

Postby Stoneburg » Sun Jun 26, 2005 12:45 pm

I'm the big stack with usual TAG image, kizito lost his stack to me in a very satisfying manner earlier, he's tight, I have no read on dellis.


OpeningBetRound
------------------
Satern : Folds
digital : Folds
milan3 : Folds
Stoneburg : Raises for 0.80 $60 [Tc] [9c]
WolvesFI : Folds
danieloxie : Folds
jurekf : Folds
kizito : Calls for 0.80 $18
CrazyFeng : Folds
dellis : Calls for 0.60 $20

Flop $2.50 [Jc] [Qs] [2c]
------------------
dellis : Checks
Stoneburg : Bets 1.60
kizito : Folds
dellis : Raises for 3.20
Stoneburg : Went all-in 53.55
dellis : Went all-in 15.15
Stoneburg : Receives returned betting money 36.80
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Postby iceman5 » Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:00 pm

Looks good to me
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sun Jun 26, 2005 4:25 pm

You've got a million outs, and if they see you as a TAG, they're probably not calling that PF raise without AQ,AK, or a BIG PP... All of those are ahead of you right now, but everything you're drawing to has them beat... Plus, you have a VERY hidden hand... I probably would've bet the pot on the flop, but other than that, seems pretty good...

Also, raising with these, whether you won or lost, should give you more action next time you raise w/ Aces or Kings (nothing sucks worse than everyone folding around and you getting the blinds...)

Editorial note... hope he didn't call w/ [Ac] [Kc] , or he's drawing to more outs than you are, and you're kinda screwed...
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Postby Stoneburg » Sun Jun 26, 2005 4:48 pm

Actually I don't like my play here. I mean he check-mini-raises me. At this level and under these circumstances, that is never a bluff. The most likely hands for him is two-pair or a set. With absolutely no folding equity if he has one of those hands (believe me, if he does he's happy to call this all-in) I'm at best a coinflip (against two pair) and at worst a slight dog (60/40) against a set.

On the other hand, I get a good price to draw since he just miniraises, and since he's probably got me on AA/KK/AK my hand is concealed if I hit it (especially the straight) and I am almost guaranteed to stack him if I hit. So I think just calling would have been the right move.
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Postby rdale » Sun Jun 26, 2005 5:18 pm

I am pleased with this play being made at this time for one reason.

This is a clear example of when I see gambling it up with a ton of outs as lucrative. You are well ahead of the game, you can pound hard and send the message, that you are playing for stacks when you play me. If I have a draw, you are likely to be pounded, if I have a made hand I'm going to pound you, I'm going to shovle chips into pots and take stacks every opportunity I get.

The variance can't really hurt your day, you have a 5x buy in I think for the game and if it is only 2.5x that is a fine as well, this is the time to open up and hammer.

If you are prone to tilting from losing a big hand of course this isn't the way to play, and the safer path is best. But getting over that exercising the power of having a stack to push these spots is how you have massive days. I don't advocate coinflips in most situations, but love them in these types of spots.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sun Jun 26, 2005 5:37 pm

The way you played it, even if you lose this hand, you're gonna see TONS more action down the road... You're taking probably at worst a coinflip now for future investments later...

And, like Rdale said, even if you lose the hand... You're still in a position where you're a buyin up for the day...
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Postby Stoneburg » Sun Jun 26, 2005 5:46 pm

Well this was my last lap at the table, I had already un-checked the auto post blind box, but I definetely see your point and it's well taken, I've not been getting any action on my AA's and KK's lately so this might be the medicine.

The argument that I'm still up doesn't really hold water and you know it, that's just a psychological thing. I actually finished 9.54ptbb/100 which is way too low for me to be happy (my average this month has been 20 which is great). Villain in this scenario flipped over AQ and boated up by the river so I was actually in the lead, but the "action argument" aside I think I should have played it more cautiously (sp?).
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Postby iceman5 » Sun Jun 26, 2005 6:05 pm

If you flat call the flop, dont improve and he pushes the turn...you have to fold.
Pushing is the best play. You do have some folding equity, especially if the guy has a bigger stack than this guy did.
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Postby kennyg » Sun Jun 26, 2005 6:06 pm

You got it in with the winning hand on the flop. You're a small favorite. You also gave your image a LAG boost. I think it's perfect.

A better player would have layed that AQ down too.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sun Jun 26, 2005 6:19 pm

Stone... like Kenny said... whether or not you won the hand, you went into it as the favorite, and that's ALWAYS +EV...
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Postby Stoneburg » Sun Jun 26, 2005 6:44 pm

It was +EV and I went in as a favorite because the guy was a muppet who calls a raise with AQo and can't fold TPTK. If he had had a set, or AKs, like he *should* have, it would have been -EV. If he had QJ which is reasonable, it would have been practically +/-0. I just think I could have made it more +EV by playing it slower.

Ice, you're assuming that he'll play like the opponents at your level. Considering he mini-raised me I very, very much doubt that he'd push the turn if I don't improve, actually I think another attempt at a check-raise is more likely than that. Most likely he'll underbet the pot, giving me odds to draw. With 15 outs anything lower than half the pot means I have odds, and considering his inability to fold TPTK I can probably stack him when I hit, meaning great implied odds for me.

Assuming these factors:
- No fold equity (believe me...)
- Up against two-pair or better

Then the move is -EV unless you count pure advertising value. Assuming the same factors, a call seems to be a *great* play.

Assuming these factors:
- Some fold equity
- TPTK, Over-pair or pure bluff somewhat likely

Then the move is +EV and just calling would probably be a worse option. I just think that scenario 1 is sooo much more likely.
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Postby Stoneburg » Sun Jun 26, 2005 6:48 pm

Oh, but yes, if he pushes the turn I will have to fold but... so what? I still make a +EV decision on the flop by calling even if I am forced to fold later in the hand.
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Postby rdale » Sun Jun 26, 2005 8:14 pm

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