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Semi-tough spot - $200 PLO8 @ FT

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Semi-tough spot - $200 PLO8 @ FT

Postby JDLush » Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:44 pm

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Postby starstealer » Thu Jan 10, 2008 1:49 pm

"How's life treatin' you Norm?"
"Like a baby treats a diaper."
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Postby Kuso » Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:24 pm

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby Kuso » Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:28 pm

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby JDLush » Thu Jan 10, 2008 9:53 pm

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Postby starstealer » Thu Jan 10, 2008 10:23 pm

"How's life treatin' you Norm?"
"Like a baby treats a diaper."
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Postby Kuso » Thu Jan 10, 2008 10:49 pm

equities pls
wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby Kuso » Fri Jan 11, 2008 1:04 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby JDLush » Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:29 am

Since I don't recall anything about the limper and he folded anyway, let's assume he never existed. I know, in this case it skews the results a bit, but at least we will have something reasonable to discuss.

Assuming villain is your basic slag FTP player, here's what I'd consider his preflop raising range:

AAxx (LDO)
A23x
A3Wx (might need to be suited to the A)
High pairs like KKxx, QQxx

Now, he was OOP but still came in for the raise, so that *likely* rules out A3Wx and high pairs. At least, I consider those excluded from most anyone until I see it happen (then I hope I remember to note it). I will raise high pairs and moderate suited aces from MP at times but I have to 'feel it' and think I can outplay the table post flop when I likely miss. Of course, this guy might think he is better than everyone and do it regardless.

Anyway, let's say that puts him on a tighter range including:

AAxx
A23x

Granted, this is probably more of a TAG's range than a SLAG's, but for safety's sake it works. I'll run some numbers using propokertools.com simulator:

vs a random AA
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3d5c8s 61.06% 245,412 374,847 3,212 240,919 54,412
AA** 38.94% 125,013 221,941 3,212 121,352 54,412

vs a better AA
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3d5c8s 52.16% 157,185 373,567 5,688 116,145 86,552
AAW* 47.84% 149,845 220,745 5,688 208,554 86,552

vs AA2x
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3d5c8s 46.79% 134,794 385,592 1,034 75,717 11,091
AA2* 53.21% 175,329 213,374 1,034 321,104 11,091

vs A23x
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3d5c8s 50.99% 106,688 354,022 128,763 84,841 11,222
A23* 49.01% 82,996 117,215 128,763 328,237 11,222

and just in case he's bored, vs a couple of big pairs with some of my flush outs
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3d5c8s 76.16% 548 548 0 630 0
KcKdQcQd 23.84% 119 272 0 0 0

Is there anything else that needs to be considered?

Based on this possible range, I need just a smidgen of fold equity to make the push profitable, no? Of course, my big mistake is assuming I had some at all, when I likely did not. That's why I was wondering about how it could have been played if I was deeper stacked. I think I have enough FE to make the play then.

I will give results later in the day
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Postby Kuso » Fri Jan 11, 2008 9:51 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby Kuso » Fri Jan 11, 2008 9:53 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby JDLush » Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:16 am

AwPP
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3d5c8s 50.21% 205 554 0 153 9
As2cJdJh 49.79% 206 266 0 427 9

and since I might forget this later, here's what he had
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3d5c8s 46.16% 168 505 20 131 9
AsAh2d3h 53.84% 234 295 20 427 9

Pretty much one of the worst possible hands I could expect within his range and I am almost 50/50. I don't see this guy ever folding the flop for my raise, but I see it as a pretty big leak on his part because of what he can be up against on my end, i.e.:

my likely best possible
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac2h7s7h 79.39% 273 761 16 0 520
AsAh2d3h 20.61% 27 43 16 0 520

not as good but still likely to be pushed over the top on him
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac4h7s7h 67.41% 333 765 0 108 9
AsAh2d3h 32.59% 52 55 0 450 9

hell, any random set
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
77** 62.64% 201,736 538,280 72 18,517 7,033
AsAh2d3h 37.36% 51,430 61,648 72 356,580 7,033

if i was your standard $25 donk
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3c7c9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
4568 52.19% 150,063 408,920 0 139,091 0
AsAh2d3h 47.81% 123,775 191,080 0 258,857 0

Ended up neither of my draws hit and I got scooped. I doubled back up later when I pushed AA35 preflop and got called by QQ56. I love this game. :)
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:19 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Kuso » Sat Jan 12, 2008 1:20 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:04 am

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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