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Semi-tough spot - $200 PLO8 @ FT

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Postby Kuso » Sat Jan 12, 2008 10:28 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby GooperMC » Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:34 pm

It has been a while since I have done calculations like this so someone check to make sure I am not making any major mistakes.

If it ended up HU and there was ~$40 on the flop then you would be raising $70 over the top which would mean the villain would have to call $70 to win $260 which means he really doesn't have to have much to call. On the flip side if you are called you are putting in $110 to win $260 so you only need 42% equity to break even.

Even if the 3rd player decided to play there would be $370 in the pot and you would be putting $110 so you only need 29% equity to break even.

Overall I think this is just a symptom of being short stacked, the the is pot already larger then what you have behind so most plays will basically be a wash. If you were deeper I think the fold equity starts pushing you into +EV for this move, as it played out I think it is basically EV neutral, maybe slightly -EV in the 3 way case.
Rhound - I got 2 outted in a $2000 pot last year, I have also broke a cup in half playing catcher. The feelings were similar.
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Postby JDLush » Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:18 am

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Postby davebreal » Wed Jan 16, 2008 3:56 pm

________________________
always raise your low draws
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ok

Postby gergery » Thu Jan 17, 2008 3:10 am

The long run is longer than you think
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Re: ok

Postby Kuso » Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:29 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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