EV of the big Belichek decision to throw the bomb on 4th down instead of the 48 yard field goal:

Field Goal attempt @ 48 yards: 3 points @ 40 to 60 percent (long field goal, can't be much higher than 60% can it?) = 1.2 to 1.8 points

Go for it and throw a bomb in the endzone: 7 points @ x percent (TD success)
+ 6.5 points @ y percent (pass interference call in the endzone on the defense equals almost certain touchdown).

Say x is 10% to 15%: 0.7 to 1.05.
Say y is 5% to 10%: 0.325 to 0.65.
Add it up: 1.025 to 1.7 points.

The bomb is probably slightly -EV compared to the FG. But with his talented receivers and the larger # of pass interference calls this year, plus the surprise factor of throwing the bomb instead of the 15 yard pass ... I don't know, I think it might be close.

OK I'm just pulling numbers out of my butt here. Anybody got any better ones?

According to sports.yahoo.com, Gostkowski on the year was 3-5 on 40-49 yarders and 0-0 on 50+. I think he's an accurate kicker but doesn't have much of a leg. Either that or the Pats just don't believe in trying long field goals.