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i got outplayed with aces, but who folds this flop?

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i got outplayed with aces, but who folds this flop?

Postby Stelvask » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:30 am

over 300 hands CO has a VP$IP of 40.21, PFR% of 17.92, and post flop aggression factor of 2.10. He's a slight long term winner - he's your typical decent lag.

On the flop i felt confident that he wouldn't have called my raise with a deuce in his hand, as i don't have any notes on him being a flush chaser, so i rule out A2s.

My initial read was a hand like 99-QQ.

can you possibly muck on this flop? how abou the turn?

I know what you always say about min raises ice, but honestly, isn't mucking on this flop just insanely weak?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed)

CO ($400)
Button ($390)
SB ($663.80)
BB ($765.90)
UTG ($527)
Hero ($396)
MP1 ($814.20)
MP2 ($310.75)
MP3 ($204.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with [Ah], [Ad]. CO posts a blind of $4.
UTG calls $4, Hero raises to $20, 3 folds, CO (poster) calls $16, 3 folds, UTG calls $16.

Flop: ($66) [8c], [2c], [2s] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $40, CO raises to $80, UTG folds, Hero calls $40.

Turn: ($226) [Qh] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $100, Hero calls $100.

River: ($426) [Ac] (2 players)
Hero bets $196 (All-In), CO calls $196.

Final Pot: $818

Results in white below:
Hero has Ah Ad (full house, aces full of twos).
CO has 8d 8s (full house, eights full of twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $818.
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Postby iceman5 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:26 pm

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Postby MVPSPORTS » Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:58 pm

I think this is one of those times that his image as a LAG DEFINITELY helped him, as there was NO way you were putting him on a flopped fullhouse...

I'm not sure I'd checkraise allin, as he could just as easily have a 2 and you're dead... I think if he bets full pot on that turn, I would fold, but I would call his flop bet...
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Postby Stelvask » Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:59 pm

i was going to check raise all in on the turn, but my first read on the flop was QQ/JJ, and i felt i'd only get called on that check raise by QQ here.

if the turn had brought a rag, i was planning to push there.

I thought about reraising on the flop, but i wanted to get more money out of him. i didn't think he'd call a strong check raise with 99-QQ on that flop.

Basicly, i was confident i was ahead on the flop, and then got worried that i'd only be called by QQ on that turn.

I hope that all makes sense.
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Postby poker2006 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:33 pm

I don't think I would have been able to get away from that whatever way it turned out. Getting a small pair on the flop is your ideal flop with a high PP, because the only hands you're afraid of are 88 and a 2. He hit his set on a flop that looks great for you, so there's not much you can do about it.

It's only fair that you got lucky as well after that and got his money. From his point of view, that would have been a tough fold. He doesn't know if you hit a higher full house, or if you completed a flush with AKs and he has you beat.
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Postby kennyg » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:53 pm

I don't think I could get away from the hand. The queen would actually scare me more then the flop though.
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