$1/$2 NL at Party

Youre in the BB with [Td]. UTG+1 just sat down and posts a blind. Folded to the button who limps. SB complete and you knuckle it.

4 to the flop in an unraised pot.
Pot is $8. The flop comes [3d][2d]. You bet $6. UTG+1 raises to $20 and its folded back to you.

You both started with $200

1) What do you put him on?
2) What do you do on the flop
3) What is your plan for the turn?

1. a set or an overpair..higher flush is unlikely.

2. call the flop bet. I want to see what that turn card is before I get overextended in this pot.

3. big check raise if no diamond or no board pair.

1) In order of likelyhood
* One pair with A of diamonds
* Two pair
* Lower flush
* Set
* Bare A of diamonds
* Overpair
* Better flush, specifically (Kxs, Qxs) - I'm including these because he posted

2) Call and see the turn for the same reasons as kenny

3) Assuming its a "good card" - I would actually lead into him for $40- the pot is $48 on the flop - if he bets $30 or more a strong check raise is going to commit you to the hand. By leading into him for $40 its forcing the decision on him, and it avoids giving him a free card. If he makes a big raise (commiting him to the hand) I would figure I'm beat and pitch the hand only losing $60 - a call tells me I'm ahead and I just need to dodge one more bullet

While having no read on the player since he just sat, I'm going to make a gernal assumption about UTG+1 and posting a BB: He is more than likely an action player - he doesn't want to wait two hands to get playing - doesn't tell me if he's any good - just likes the action

I don't know if you can put him on a hand, given he just posted the blind UTG+1. He could have an overpair, set or 2 pair like said before, but he could have Axs, Kxs, even Qxs... He didn't raise though, so he might not have an overpair.

The one thing his post shows is that he's a bad player, any reasonable player would wait for the blinds.

Against an unknown player I might just try to check-call all the way if the board doesn't bring another flush card or doesn't pair. The likelihood of two players having the flush is small, so you could take a chance and be more aggressive with the hand, but if you are behind there's no way for you to improve, so I might not push it that much.

Hand range:
(1) high diamond + random feature (pair, straight draw, etc)
(2) made hand that can catch you (set, two pair)
(3) flush ... this is ~85% beating you

Since (1) is most likely, and you'd like to allow (1)+(2) to make a mistake against you (by calling with incorrect odds; rather than giving them a free card), I'd reraise the pot on the flop (fold to a reraise), and lead the turn (fold to a raise). If I get called on the turn, I'm probably done.

I note incidentally that UTG+1 raised exactly the pot on the flop, suggesting he's a decent player. I think this makes a high flush slightly less likely?

Oh poker2006, I sometimes post as soon as I arrive, either through error if I'm multi-tabling ... or simply because 1/2NL is just too juicy to miss even one hand ... not sure if that supports or contradicts your "early post=fish" argument?!

Edit: Last time I had JTs on a low monotone board against a blind, I got well and truly stacked against a Q high flush!

I put him on two pair. It's most mathematically likely, and his raise looks like a made hand to me. In that case it would be hard to squeeze anything out from him. I don't think that a single diamond is really likely, so I'll call and check the turn. Assuming the turn isn't a diamond, I'm check-raising any bet, and I won't be folding. If it is a diamond, I will play very cautiously, and i'll get out if there's much aggression.

i think the guy has an overpair 88-QQ and is trying to protect it. Very unlikley that he has a flush, in my opinion. Also could be holding some crap 2 pr like 72 or 73. I'd bet hard into the pot if the board doesnt pair and another non diamond falls.

I don't see him raising pot with a flopped A or K high flush. Q high isn't out of the question. Range of hands could be a higher flush, overpair with a diamond, single pair + diamond, set or two pair. I think 2 pair is most likely, then a set, then a flopped flush.

I would call the flop bet and check the turn with the intention of check-raising. If he checks behind that's fine. If I check raise and he pushes I fold.

If he checks behind on the turn and the river doesn't pair the board or put 4 to the flush, I will bet 1/2 the pot and if he raises, call or fold based on the size of the raise.

Heres my take and as usual, its almost exactly what Kenny said.

1) When someone makes a healthy raise on a flush baord, they do not have a big flush. Almost nobody raises a big flush there. He will almost always have a 2 pair, a set or sometimes a small flush who is afraid of a 4th diamond.

There is really no reason to reraise the flop. I dont want him folding and I want to make sure the turn is not another diamond and doesnt pair the board before I go crazy. However, if neither of those things happens, Im willing to play for my stack because I know im ahead.

2) So I called his raise.

3) The turn was an offsuit 9. I checked and he bet $30. Now, Im raising but how much? The pot is $78 after his bet. I need to make a big raise to kill his odds for a boat if he has a set. Any big raise commits me, so I pushed all in. He will call with a small flush for sure. he will probably call with a set because he wants to win the big pot and he probably wont believe I would do that with a made flush. He did call and had [4d].

Stoneberg. The only real problem hand (if I check that might check behind) is [7c].

He would have TPTK and the nut flush draw. Most people dont raise that big with that hand though and if they do, they usually bet the turn and try to take it down. Even if he doesnt, he only has 7 outs so he has only about a 1 in 7 chance of hitting the 4th diamond.