by scarface » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:03 am
There are only 4 hands that you are an underdog to, and a lot more that you're a coinflip to, but I bet he makes the same move with 5's to 8's too so I would say you're slightly better than a 50/50 chance of winning, (probably like 60/40 with the bluff factor).
But, I think I advocate folding here, your number one goal in an SNG is to make the money, number 2 is to get first place, since you haven't made it yet and aren't sure what your opponent holds, I think folding is right. If you call here and win, you are almost guaranteed 2nd place, but since that isn't a goal, it shouldn't matter. You're in no immediate danger (nor is your opponent) and there is a short stack. I can't count the number of times that I was short-stacked on the bubble and folded my way into the money because of larger stacks battling it out.
That said, I don't blame you for calling, it's a lot easier to beat yourself up after you see the results, and the chance of taking out an equal stack (who's trying to take you blind!) is very tempting. But I think in the long run the right move is folding.
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