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BR Thoughts

Postby BigPhish » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:04 pm

I'm trying to figure out what level of S&G is reasonable to play for my BR and, conversely, the BR level I'll need to move up. So, here are my thoughts and my approach. Comments appreciated.

I've allocated $330 of my BR to playing S&G tourneys. The rest of my BR is allocated toward ring games (which I'm taking an extended break from) and buffer. ;)

I'm currently playing an even mix of $5.50 and $11 tourneys.

When I get to $440, I'll drop the $5's and go exclusively $11.

When I get to $660, I'll go to an even mix of $11 and $22.

When I get to $880, I go with exclusively $22.

$1100 mixes $22 and $33 (assuming $33 exists)

And so on.

Now for a more thoughtful approach, maybe...

The players at the $5's and $10's are exactly the same, not just in skill level, but the same people. So the play is clearly no more difficult at twice the buy-in, but the rewards certainly are twice as great. Is my $330 BR enough to handle the potential downswings?

Let's say I go 10 games without an ITM finish (current long cold streak is 5). That's $110 out of my BR, taking me down to $220. I can handle that swing, but any more than that would have me not only questioning whether I should move down, but also whether I should move out. So I think maybe I could play exclusively on $10's now. Reasonable?

But if I can play the $10's now, when can I play a mix of $10 and $20? That depends on the level of competition, I suppose, but let's assume it's slightly tougher. Clearly I can't tolerate a 10 game downswing at my current BR, as I'd be down to $110 and very uncomfortable. So, at which point can I tolerate a $220 downswing?

If I can accept losing 1/3 of my BR to a 10 game downswing, the number is $660.

So there's my formula: I should be playing at a level where a 10-game downswing will cost me no more than 1/3 of my BR.

Is that reasonable?

With that new formula, I should do...

$11 buy-ins at $330 (now)

Mix $11 and $22 buy-ins (average $16.5) at $495

$22 buy-ins at $660

OK, this is looking pretty clearly like 30x buy-in for the BR requirement. Simpler formula.

As long as I keep my ITM% upwards of 40% (currently mid-40's) and my ROI% upwards of 40% (currently high-40's to low 50's, small sample size so each win swings it wildly), I should be good to go, yes?

What's conventional wisdom re BR size to buy-in?
-BigPhish
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Tue Oct 25, 2005 3:07 am

Keeping your ROI upwards of 40% is going to be very difficult. It *might* be possible to sustain it at the $11 sngs but once you get to the 22 and 33s, 30% - 35% is a respectable ROI to aim for. I think you've got a good plan set out for your BR for SNGs that has a very, very low RoR (risk of ruin). If you want to move up levels and increase your bankroll a bit faster you could try 10 - 15 buyins for each level untill you get to lets say the 50s. It seems risky but the rewards are much greater, and, honestly, i've never had a downswing of 10 buyins so I think something that catastrophic is pretty rare. Either way it's up to the level of risk you want to take.
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Postby BigPhish » Tue Oct 25, 2005 2:03 pm

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Postby Cactus Jack » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:09 am

According to the math whizzes and SNG masters on 2+2, you should get a reasonably hard number at 1000. I believe their line is above 20% ROI.

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Postby excession » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:32 pm

I didn't know about ROI when I started, but I was 48% ITM over my first 500 SnG's with about equal split 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

These days I'm almost exclusively Ring except when blowing of steam at $15 + 1 Turbos at Stars, so I don't track at all really.
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Postby Cactus Jack » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:06 pm

"Are the players better as the stakes go up? It's not an exam; it's a buyin." Barry Tanenbaum
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