by EscapePlan9 » Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:54 pm
As those reading my journal know, I'm clearing BoDog's 10% bonus by exclusively playing their turbos. A quick summary of my results:
36 SNGs (a mix of $6 and $16)
$552 winnings
$319.5 buy-in + fees
$232.5 net profit
ROI = 72.78% (short-term, definitely. completely unsustainable)
There's certainly more variance with turbos. Sometimes there will be 7 players left, you'll have 8x BB and have to push with AQs UTG only to be called by AK and 66. Still, turbos can be beaten just as consistently as regular SNGs. Here's why: your opponents do not push enough in the right situations.
The most important factor to determining whether you win turbos (and PP SNGs even) is staying tight early, and pushing more hands later. Camping on the premium hands when you're getting short-stacked is a sure loser. I know a lot of people are uncomfortable pushing all-in with 94o in the SB against the BB who has you covered, but sometimes it is the right play to make.
Why does this push-bot strategy work? It has everything to do with the nature of SNGs. Do you really want to take a coin-flip or 60/40 (2 live cards versus 2 live cards) for the rest of your chips, possibly knocking you out of the money? No, of course not! You want to be the one doing the pushing so you have the ENORMOUS fold equity that goes with it.
With the huge blinds and them rapidly increasing, every steal is gold. While everyone else is satisfied being blinded away waiting for the big hands, you're pushing with a LARGE variety of hands. Even if you're called, you're rarely worse than a 1.75:1 dog, except against overpairs or when you're dominated. Whoops, someone caught me pushing with T9s against his KQo! The flop pairs my 9 and I win. I was only a 1.75:1 underdog anyways. Let the losers berate you for your play. Next time you pick up KK - don't do anything fancy. Just push all-in again - play off your maniac image. I did this with AA recently and got someone to spite-call me with A5. Too bad for him!
Every steal you make is a cushion for when you need to push. You'll probably be called by a short-stack and lose at some point, but you still aren't in bad shape since you gained so many chips with the steals earlier.
You absolutely must play short-handed high-blinds from a theoretical angle. Yes, it might seem your pocket pairs always lose, but there is no luck with cards. In the long-run all the odds work out, so continue to push your small edges and you will win.
Push-botting is highly profitable and intense. I highly recommend reading up on ICM (see my post "Push EV and ICM" for more details) to improve the push-botting part of your game. I know it sounds terrible to be a push-botter and eliminate post-flop play, but you have to realize LATE in online SNGs the blinds typically are so enormous (compared to chip stacks) that making raises less than all-in often are -EV plays. Sure, when you have 30x BB and it's 3-handed, you can play some post-flop. But when you both have around 10-12x BB, it's push or fold. You cannot afford to be blinded away, and you cannot afford to raise a small amount, see an unfavorable flop, be faced with a big bet, and fold.
Always play from the theoretical perspective. I'm not saying disregard your intuitions, but I'm saying, don't start folding A5s when you're short-stacked out of fear of coin-flips or domination. The most likely result is you push all-in, everyone folds, and you pick up the blinds uncontested. Even when someone calls you and wins, don't double-guess yourself. You made the right push at the right time, someone just happened to pick up a good hand that time - and those hands don't come by often.
This post was a lot longer than I ever intended.
Last edited by
EscapePlan9 on Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:24 am, edited 3 times in total.