Damn MVP, guess we got this sports betting thing all figured out!

Thanks guys,
OK, since both of you basically said the same thing, I understand where the 3 point thing came from.

I do NOT agree with the bookmakers then that this game is just a "pick'em" game and the Home team is a 3 point favorite based on it being a home game in this case.
I think I may actually try this just this once.

Anybody have any insight's into this game that may convince me not to? Is having to win by more than 3 points in this game too much for the Cowboys to make this a good bet?

Some quick facts to consider (yes I like to bet on football):

Per Sagarin:
Philly = +23.39
home field +3.99
Dallas = -26.04

So Philly should be favored by 1.34

Dallas ATS (against the spread) 4-3-1 this season
Philly ATS 2-6 this season

Dallas 3-0-1 ATS last 4 overall
Philly 2-7 ATS last 9 overall
Philly 3-1 ATS last 4 meetings w/ Dallas in Philly

By the way what those two just said is a gigantic misconception of Sports Betting. It pretty much only applies to the Super Bowl. No this is not a joke.

Care to follow that statement up with an explanation Xaston? Seriously.

Which part only applies to the superbowl? Everything they said is correct. And I know more than just a bit about betting sports also.

As for the game. I would say that the spread is set just right which is why I wont be betting the game. They are fairly evenly matched teams. Philly has the home field giving them the edge. The Cowboys demolished the Eagles last time, which is extra incentive for Philly this time. The majority of fairly evenly matched divisional rival series get split. In other words, its not that common for a team to sweep the other one unless one if real good and the other real bad.

I think Philly wins the game, but Dallas winning wouldnt surprise me at all, which is why betting the game doesnt make sense unelss you just want to do it to make thegame more exciting as you root your team on.

You want a good bet? Take SF +13 vs Chicgao. Ive never seen a team favored by 13 points at the same time the line on the total points was only 33. Or Cleveland +8 vs Pittsburgh. Im not betting against Pittsburgh because I refuse to bet against them, but this is too many points to give Cleveland unless Roethlisberger plays (which isnt going to happen).

From "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong, which is considered the best book on Sports Betting.

"Balanced Action?

Ideally, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, the line should never move up or down, it should attract huge action on both teams, and by the time the game starts there should be approximately the same number of dollars bet on each team. At least that's what most people think. It's not true.

Better than that, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, is when are a whole lot more dollars bet on one team than on the other, and the team with all the action on it is the one that loses."

He goes on to talk about how he talked to the manager of the Stardust Casino's Sports Book and gives more explanation, and says that it really only holds true for the Super Bowl because there they will sacrifice some EV, to ensure a profit by trying to get equal bets, just because there is such a great volume of money bet. I'll type out a little bit more of it if you'd like.

yes please, ty.

The hell with Dallas and the Eagles. Make a bet on Ohio state vs. Northwestern.

You mean they play football in college too?

It would have to be a small bet on NW because I never bet on "the" phuckeyes.