by Juskimo » Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:58 am
ok, a few thoughts.
Play it though from his angle with either hand.
Say he is on a steal. You are in the sb with 8-4. You didnt mention what size bets had been taking down the blinds (3x seems a bit small, but we will get to that in a bit). You raise it 3x in an attempt to steal the big blind. The BB calls. This means the BB has something. If the BB thinks you are trying to steal and wants to take down the pot right there, he would reraise big (2000 or all in) and hope you fold. If the BB has some kind of hand, but does not want to push in case you do have a monster, he just calls. Now the flop comes down, you have bottom pair. What are the BB's most likely holdings if he just calls? PP bigger than 4s, Ax and two broadway. Is the SB going to lead out 800 here? As I see it, he will either check-fold or push, trying to represent the king and get you to lay down your smaller pair or ace. You said you had something by calling, I just dont see this as being a very profitable play on his part.
Now say he has a monster, AK (what I would assume he had). He does not want to push, because he wants to get some action. He makes a standard raise (this is where I think that the bet looked a little small for a steal, but without knowing what was taking down the blinds, its hard to say). He is going to bet into the BB and not mind either a call (which means the BB has something, but is not in love with it) or a push (because he is only really behind KK and AA). BB calls, flop comes. He got about the best that he was hoping for, unless the BB had something odd like kj or 44. He bets out, again not careing if he gets a push or a call, but big enough to give some other odd hand, like q10, the wrong odds to call. If the BB calls, he can push the turn. BB pushes, its a pretty easy call, seeing as the BB is more likely to call/raise a smaller amount with the hands that have him dominated (AA, KK, JJ, 44, KJ) to keep the SB in the hand.
I think the fact that he was betting into the big stack is significant. Its the only person who can knock him OTM at this point. Unless he is very ballsey or very stupid, I dont think the flop bet could be a steal.
As a general rule, I avoid playing against big stacks like the plague until HU.
-Jus
[23:42] Mekos King: and lookin bck on it all
[23:42] Mekos King: I FEEL RICH JEWISH GUILT
<spank_her_pair> whats everyone up 2?
<stickdude> watching Pok's AA get stomped on by Jus's AK
<PocketSevens> For those who missed it there's proof that when you eat a lot of fish you turn into one
http://juskimo.blogspot.com/
j[d]