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i think im going to commit suicide over these runner runners

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i think im going to commit suicide over these runner runners

Postby gutsh0t » Fri Jan 13, 2006 6:08 pm

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with [Ah], [Ac].
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) [Jh], [Jd], [6d] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) [Td] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (6.75 BB) [9h] (2 players)
MP bets, Hero raises, MP 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB


the theme of today seems to be, everyone suck out on gutsh0t.
fucking damn....does anyone play the river differently? i sure as hell know he didnt have a jack because hes aggressive. but runner runner, come on.... anyone lay down it down on the river?
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Postby The Golden 1 » Fri Jan 13, 2006 6:14 pm

Judging by your tone you seem to say you lost this one, so I'll go on a limb and say when they bet into you on the river, you still only have one pair on a pretty scary looking board and him showing big strength so I just call, no way in hell am I laying it down.
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Postby gutsh0t » Fri Jan 13, 2006 6:17 pm

villian has KQ for a runner runner straight.
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Postby Tiburon » Fri Jan 13, 2006 8:09 pm

Before I looked down, I was going to say it smells like KQ, and if one was a diamond, you're not getting him to fold. If both were diamonds (couldn't be), he's not going anywhere.

Look at the hand from his perspective. He open raises with KQ. You 3-bet him, so he has to call. You go to the flop heads-up.

Flop is [Jh] [Jd] [6d].

I'll assume he actually had [Kd] [Qh], for argument's sake. You could be 3-betting with anything, but since you bet the flop, it damn sure ain't JJ, since he's probably sure you wouldn't bet flopped quads. You could be on AA (Yahtzee), AK, AQ, KK, QQ (the last two he's not putting you on because he'd be in trouble. He sees overcards and a backdoor flush draw. The BDFD is worth about 1.5 outs in reality, plus his two live cards (which only work if he doesn't put you on KK or QQ, AK, or AQ) gives him 7.5 outs. He's getting 8.5-to-1 odds on his call on the flop when he believes he has 5.26-to-1 odds of hitting a hand. To him, his call is correct.

The turn brings [Td]. He now has a flush draw (assuming you don't have the [Ad]), and an open-ended straight draw, plus his overcards. He has 9 outs for the flush, though the [Ad] in your hand would counterfeit them. Cut those in half. So, 4.5 outs for the flush, 3 other 9's and 3 other A's for the straight, and he could also have 3 Q's and 3 K's for an overpair if you're playing with a pair under JJ. He has an conservatively estimated 15 outs here, so he's got odds all day to call your turn bet. He then hits on the river and takes the pot.

If he doesn't read you on AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, or AQ, he has outs a plenty in his mind.

It really sucks to have AA cracked like that, but in limit it's so hard to limit a player's ability to call on a draw...

With that board, I flat call the river and save a BB.
"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
--JJSCOTT2

Read my blog at
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Postby gutsh0t » Fri Jan 13, 2006 8:17 pm

wow that was a very good analysis...thanks tiburon.

i'm trying to work on getting to that third level of thinking WHILE playing instead of sitting down and then after a couple of minutes coming to the same conclusions you did lol
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Postby Tiburon » Fri Jan 13, 2006 8:32 pm

"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
--JJSCOTT2

Read my blog at
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