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Giving up when you know you're beat

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Giving up when you know you're beat

Postby JJSCOTT2 » Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:51 pm

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 7 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with [Ac], [Js].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) [Ks], [As], [Kd] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) [9c] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

River: (11.25 BB) [Th] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

Results in white below:
UTG has 4d Kh (three of a kind, kings).
Hero has Ac Js (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: UTG wins 13.25 BB.


I never know when to just dump hands in limit, considering that I know I can get to showdown for so "cheap", this I think is a bad habit that has been formed from playing too much NL where you never know on the turn whether or not you're going to be able to see a cheap SD or not, so I guess it's a novelty of limit that I know in this particular hand that at most its gonna cost me $4 more bucks. Anyway, this guy has an 80% VP$IP over 100+ hands, and an AF agression of 0.63, I absoultely know by the check-raise on the turn that this guy has a king, it's nearly impossible for him not to, so I guess my question is: Can I dump this on the turn for $2 more after I've already bet it, or is this one of those things in limit where it's like, well, he's probly got me beat but he might not so I'm just gonna suck it up and throw in the last 4 bucks to see a SD? Gotta say though, re-learning how to play limit is pretty exciting.
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Postby The Golden 1 » Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:54 pm

That's not a drawy board and I probably check behind on the turn, you're either way ahead or way behind. That way it will only cost 1 bet and you get to see a sd, as you played it should've cost 1 bet and you fold, not 3 bets ot see the river.
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Postby Xaston » Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:17 pm

Against an opponent this passive post flop however, that bet is much better served by betting the turn (imo) to get value when ahead and prevent him from sucking out for free. Once he check raises you can be sure he has you beat and just fold. By betting the turn you can get 2 big bets out of a worse A or some even worse hand that decides to call down, and still only lose 1 when you are beat by a King. You also get to not give a free card to a flush draw.
Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby The Golden 1 » Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:21 pm

Oops, didn't see the flush draw, then yes, bet the turn and fold to a raise.
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Postby Ebonwoulfe » Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:54 pm

Yes, fold, dammit. Throwing in two big bets when you are convinced you are behind is a BIG problem. Seriously, next time you are going to make this sort of call, physically pull $4 out of your pocket and set it on fire. "That's stupid!", you shout. Well then stop making these calls.

Think about it this way:

Money saved spends just the same as money earned.
-Mike Caro

Saving two big bets is exactly the same as winning two extra big bets. 3 BB/100 when using PT means you're doing good. If it's a good thing to win 3 big bets over the course of 100 hands, don't you think it's a good thing to save two big bets in a single hand? It's just the same as earning those two big bets, which means you only have one more big bet to win in the next 100 hands to be doing good.

One way to make sure you're not going to too many rivers is check your vpip vs. wtsd. If your WTSD is high (40+), you need a vpip of around 15% to signify that you're only seeing the flop with hands that are usually worth going all the way with. If your vpip is 20+, your WTSD needs to be below 30 to signify that you are dumping those marginal hands that are sorta good enough.

I speak from experience. Just because it's limit it doesn't mean it's an excuse to call with losing hands.
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Postby CFlannagan » Wed Jan 25, 2006 2:22 pm

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