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Fold the river? (.50/1 fr)

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Fold the river? (.50/1 fr)

Postby Juskimo » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:30 am

No reads to speak of. Playing Piers style tight, up about 17 bb by only showing big hands.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with [Ac], [Qh].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 5 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) [Th], [As], [4s] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, SB folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) [Qd] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (8.50 BB) [Ts] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Anywhere else I may have wanted to play this differently?

-Jus
[23:42] Mekos King: and lookin bck on it all
[23:42] Mekos King: I FEEL RICH JEWISH GUILT

<spank_her_pair> whats everyone up 2?
<stickdude> watching Pok's AA get stomped on by Jus's AK
<PocketSevens> For those who missed it there's proof that when you eat a lot of fish you turn into one

http://juskimo.blogspot.com/
j[d]
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Postby Kuso » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:45 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby The Golden 1 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:53 am

No way you fold there for 1 more bet, remember you have to be right only 1/12 times (1/13 if you figure UTG will overcall, which he probably will a pot this size) and I think you will be (just not this time, because some doofus probably hit his ten)
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Postby Derk » Mon Feb 20, 2006 8:11 am

At .5/1, I really think you are beat here. 2 come all the way to the river which puts the flush up and pairs the board. After a bet and a call it's raised? Someone has at least one T and maybe your opponents each have one. I think 95% of the time here, you're beat. If the pot was smaller and this is a higher level I would be more inclined to believe it was a naked ace. That said, I'd probably call here regardless.
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Postby ndavis » Mon Feb 20, 2006 8:58 am

Making a bad call with a good hand at the river is a small mistake, folding the best hand at the river is a disaster.
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Re: Fold the river? (.50/1 fr)

Postby woody » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:42 am

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Postby piersmajestyk » Mon Feb 20, 2006 10:14 am

Other options: Just check from the BB preflop with the intention of betting out or better yet CR the flop if it is favorable to do so. Alot of folks will argue that you should be raising from the BB here but with multiple folks limping in I am more inclined to check and see the flop cheaply. That way if you miss and there is action you can fold cheaply, if you hit you can bet or CR and force folks drawing to hit their 3 or 5 outers to do so without proper odds which is something you won't be able to do, at least with the 5 outer if you raise here preflop. It all comes down to do you think you can build and win a bigger pot for the times that you do hit by raising preflop versus making the same amount by outplaying opponents post flop without raising preflop in conjunction with the money you save from not raising preflop. Hope that makes some sense. Honestly I don't know the answer but if you play well post flop I think I would lean toward the maximum value being with checking your option preflop but either way it is probably a very close decision.

On the river I would likely just check call instead of leading into two folks when that nasty river hits.
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Postby Juskimo » Mon Feb 20, 2006 4:52 pm

Thanks for the advice.

UTG +2 had [Ks] [Js] for the turned straight and the rivered nut flush.

-Jus
[23:42] Mekos King: and lookin bck on it all
[23:42] Mekos King: I FEEL RICH JEWISH GUILT

<spank_her_pair> whats everyone up 2?
<stickdude> watching Pok's AA get stomped on by Jus's AK
<PocketSevens> For those who missed it there's proof that when you eat a lot of fish you turn into one

http://juskimo.blogspot.com/
j[d]
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Postby The Golden 1 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 4:55 pm

Well be glad that he sucked in playing it, missed a whole set of bets on the flop and the turn.
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Postby Xaston » Mon Feb 20, 2006 5:34 pm

I'm not so sure I agree with not folding the river. The caller between you two is pretty crucial. I definately wouldn't fold, but I'm not convinced calling has a higher EV than folding.
Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby woody » Mon Feb 20, 2006 5:53 pm

Now, that Piers mentioned it, with the board on the river being so nasty, I think that a good argument can be made for check calling the river.
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