I push that too. 5bb and 3 opponets means that any ace, any pair and any two face cards are good enough for me to push. QT is 60/40 over a random hand so if SB folds it is a very +EV move since you get almost 2:1 on your money and you're a favorite.

Moving up from 3rd place to 2nd place only increases your profit by 1 buyin. The difference between 2nd and 1st is 2 buyins. You really should be playing for first once ITM. Pushing here is unquestionably right.

Those Pacific SnGs are nasty with their blind structure. They're just as bad as Party's, I think.

Anyway, I'm going to chime in with a push here. Not a hell of a lot else you can do at this point.

You're 77% ROI? With how many attempts under your belt? That's ridiculously high, and will be impossible to maintain.

Speaking of crazy ROIs... I'm having a magnificient run at PokerRoom whoring:

72 SNGs
65.51% ROI

Sure, you still will be a winning player by calling or folding in this situation. You're already ITM, afterall. But, you can further increase your ROI by a few percent by pushing all these edges. I highly advise that anyone serious about SNGs try to understand ICM.


Well I thought you might say something like that.

I just dont think you have to push here while you can wait to at least finish second by doing almost nothing at all. Yes the blinds are very high but you got a nice stack that can handle something. When the small guy is out, and that is pretty soon ,you can push your edges. QT is not a hand that can easily win 3 handed.

Why go all in to win 600 when the blinds are 1000. I want third out and then push almost any hand.
To me getting second for a small price and taking a chance to finish third is to big in THIS situation.

BB is forced to call with any two cards. Your QT is better than a random hand. He could have T8, or Q4, or perhaps two live cards. It's not likely he has a K or A. In other words, BB is more than likely drawing against you to win. And you're not only winning 600, you're also winning the HUGE blinds (500/1000).

Also, SB knows that he doesn't need to call here at all. So he's only going to call 5% of the time. He can fold and clinch an easy 2nd.

I am saying that if the sb has a hand he will let you know. You are still up against 2 random hands. In this situation you have the best hand 40% of the time a random hand is around 30 %.
The only thing you win against BB is his 600. If you go all in you will lose if you are called by sb.
He will call more often then 5 % and not only with AA-KK.

I just don't take the risk when the increase in money is almost free and I don't think it is good math to push when a call does the same.

Convince me that pushing here is the best move in the long run compared to the extra chips you will gain or getting second. I just don't see that those chips will garantee you a better finish compared to the risk of losing.

Not saying either way is the right way just wanna share some thoughts.


Cheers,

Tom.

Let's say you call, and SB pushes all-in with 88. You still have two overcards and giving up this pot is putting yourself in a bad spot when its headsup. It doesn't matter what SB pushes all-in with, you still have to call. So you push all-in to have the best chance of keeping the play between you and the BB who you are likely ahead of. And if SB calls, you may still win and clinch the first right there.

When I input this scenario into SNG-PT, the results was it's a clear push no matter what SB's range is (BB's range obviously is 100%). If SB calls with 100%, 50%, 20%, etc. of hands it's a clear push. The math? You have 38% prize pool equity by folding, but 40% prize pool equity by pushing (varies slightly depending on SB's range). As long as there is at least a 0.5% difference in prize pool equity, pushing is the right play - and here it is 4 times that!

I assumed the blinds still have to be paid So the BB is all in and he has 4800 and sb 2800 after posting.
If not then I would think about pushing with $1500 in pot already ( antes also I geuss ).
Maybe I should push things more even when blinds have been paid but I find that hard to do in this situation.
Thx for your thoughts.


Tom.