Again, fine for a cash game. Disastrous in a tournament.

Numbers, schnumbers. Obviously you lost this hand, or you wouldn't have posted it.

There is often debate on 2+2--where numbers rule--on how to play AA early in a tournament. Those guys are the Acolytes of Aggression, yet the better players often take a pass on situations where they'll be knocked out early in a tournament.

One, if you are the best player at the table, you'll be more the favorite as the number of players get smaller. Therefore, slightly +EV situations early on can be -EV given your increasing odds of being ITM. Playing aggressive early is like giving a drawer the proper odds to call. If you're one of the best players at the table, his implied odds of winning early are greater than yours, increasing as the ability of the player decreases. Try that on your calculator.

Second, you had every reason to believe you were behind. He practically shouted it. He raised, which may or may not be a really strong hand. He called your very large reraise. Now, if he's a total donkey, see Reason One. If he's not, you're in trouble, behind and out of position. You checked, which was proper as the flop totally missed you--you have the A of clubs and think that it hit you? He pushed. What hands could you put him on? Overpair, most likely. Smaller PP with a flop that hit his hand. KQ-KTc, if he's a total donk or 78c is not out of the realm of possibility, although I would be ripping him for calling a huge raise with this hand and he really is a total fish. What hand were you putting him on when you called his push?

Third, how could you have possibly called this? Only an absolute pure bluff with two overcards has you ahead of anything? I've played an awful lot of SNGs and can't remember a player so fishy he'd push a pure bluff like this, even in a rebuy MTT. Most likely, the guy hits his hand and gets overly excited and pushes instead of trying to win the most chips he can. Only another fish would call him, which often happens, although less and less as players are improving. (Didn't it happen here?) Hard as it is to believe, even in the lowest limits, players are getting a little better.

You cannot possibly defend this play with any honesty. It was totally dumb. So what if you had the proper odds to call? Proper odds and make what kind of hand? He's got 2 cards to come, too. What exactly ARE the proper odds for you making a better hand than he most likely has now and him not improving?

Fourth, as you say in a previous reply that you've read Harrington or at least imply that Harrington says ABC is the way to play. He also says that playing a LAG style is effective, but far more dangerous. He also says that LAGS are only effective if they can get away from a hand. A LAG that can't get away from a hand is a--wait for it--a FISH.

Fifth and most important of all, you are under a common misperception. Getting a large stack early on in an SNG is NOT a guarantee of anything. With few exceptions, the big stack early always comes back to the field. The only time they don't is if they get on a huge run of cards and run over the table. This has happened for me one time in thousands of SNGs. I'm a fairly decent tournament player, and I cannot make a big stack hold up until the end. No matter what, it just won't. (It only increases my chances of making it ITM because I'm insured against being knocked out in one hand.)

I grant you this: you know the math far better than I do. Outside of that, you are behind on most other skills it takes to win consistenly in tournaments, assuming you really believe you played this correctly. I'm hoping you are trying to argue the other side in order to stimulate discussion, which may be the case in rereading your responses. The reason you didn't get much of an argument on the other side was your position was totally hopeless and we all saw it for that.

My advice is this--It's okay to play like a donkey once in a while, but it's not okay to BE a donkey. And it's never okay to be a stubborn mule, any of the time.

This is all I have to say on this subject. There is a high danger of forest fire at this point and there is no reason to fan the flames.

Good luck in future tournaments,

CJ

Bascally the only time it would be correct to fold this hand would be if you could be more than 80% sure he has a set or a flush, and that's just never, ever going to be true. Once you're on the flop, options are to bet or check-call/raise

You are making the classic mistake of a cash player.

Doubling your money in a coin-flip this early doesn't double your chances of getting ITM, whereas losing it makes those chances 0%.

Now if your opponents are Cloutier, Harrington, Negraneu et al who are going to outplay you in the long run then take the early coin-flip. Heck you might even have some fold equity against them.

But as they are actually $5 SnG muppets, you can surely find a much better spot. As Sklansky points out, in tourney play it is minus EV to take a 55/45 with all your chips if by holding onto them you can be sure of gettting a 75/25 option a little bit later..

Now if you are experimenting with the 'double up in first 5 mins or bust' strategy to mean you can play more SnG's/hr or something then that might be different, but I don't get the feeling that's what is on your mind in this thread..

A basic rule of thumb for tournament play which I hold dear:

Chips you lose are more valuable than chips you win.

As long as one keeps this uppermost in one's mind, you have a chance to win, always. What kills most players is bleeding chips early on. If you're down under 8BB, you're at a decided disadvantage, esp in the low limit tournaments where opponents will call with a very wide range of hands.

CJ

If you have a read on the player I don't think it is a bad move at all you have about 8 outs to the nuts and 5 overcards and you may be good right now ( i doubt that one ).
I would only be worried about AK though because people do play it like that.

I just don't like the check on the flop you should be the agressor and let him do the thinking.Bet the pot and if he then raises you can still call if you like the odds of doubling up on the flush draw.

Sometimes you are wrong but doubling up early on someone you think you have beat with a draw to the nuts is a move I often make.
If I am wrong I am wrong and start the next one. But if I am right I have a good stack to make the money and also a looser image.

Tommyhawk.

By the way, What happened?

'The chance of him flopping a finished flush (and I have the A) is less than 1% if he has two suited cards '

The correct question isn't 'what is his chances of flopping a flush with 2 suited cards', but, 'given that the flop is mono suited, what is the chance of him having 2 suited cards of the correct suit?'.

There are 9 clubs out there out of 47 unknown cards.

Chances first card is a club 9/47
Then multiply by chances 2nd card is club is 8/46.

(9/47) x (8/46) is 3.3% and that's not the end of the story as the above assumes a random distribution of starting hands in raised pots.
In fact people are much more likely to play suited starting hands than unsuited ones, so that 3.3% needs to be pushed upwards to reflect your true risk. My guess is it's about 5% or so. You could argue that as you have the that takes a lot of his possible 2 club holdings in a raised pot out of consideration and knock it back down to 3% again. Not huge but not 1% either and it's only one of the holdings that makes you a dog...

And that is just at the moment of the flop. Here you have more information. The Villain has pushed all in with his hand.

I take it you haven't studied Bayesian probability then (or indeed any probability). You have to re-assess probabilities whenever new information comes into the system.

Let me describe the following scenario:

It's a $200 NL Ring Game. None of the players are out and out maniacs. You have KK UTG, you raise to 4xBB. MP re-raises to 12xBB, the Button pushes all-in.

What is the probability of one of them having AA - you think it's no better than 1% as any player is about 0.5% to have AA as a starting hand?

Here he is say 3% to have a made flush before he pushes. Once he has pushed the liklihood of you facing a made flush goies skyrocketing, much like in the KK example above.


What you are really betting on is your read that he has paint that isn't a pair or AK or 2 clubs and that his all in push is a pure bluff or semi bluff with one club and therefore you are ahead.

If you are so sure of your read then call away but if you really think this call is 80/20 then your reading skills must be better than Stu Ungar's.