$50 SNG at Party Poker. Payout is $250, $150, and $100.

I have 9000 chips, blinds are 200/400. It is 6 handed.

UTG+1 and hijack fold. CO goes all in for 3200. This is not uncommon, as people seem to know what they're doing at this level. I am flossing [Td]. SB has 4200 and BB has 2000.

Who likes a push and who likes a fold?

Fold. I would re-push with AQ+, JJ+, and maybe TT or AJs. I haven't checked it with SNG-PT yet, but this is what I think is right.

If CO knows what he's doing, he's pushing something like 66+, A9+, KQ, KJs. ATs isn't good enough against that range to risk half your stack.

edit: Checked SNG-PT - fold. I almost was exactly right with the calling range, hooray!

Against a range of 66+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, KQ

Call with these hands: TT+,AQ+

Yes, I think most people's pushing ranges are very slim there. The number one mistake players make in late-game SNGs is missing out on +EV pushing situations. The overwhelming majority don't push often enough. If I have a read, like he's pushed all-in many times before, or I've seen his all-in hand at showdown, then I'll adjust my range. Here, you didn't mention anything other than "he seems to know what he's doing". The majority of players would not push T8s there.

PokerStove (a free program) can tell you the probability of them having those hands after you. TT+ and AQ+ only make up 4.7% of total hands. So if each player to act after you has a calling range of TT+ AQ+, each player will fold roughly 95% of the time. If you knew that was your opponents calling ranges, you could profitably push a LOT of hands just because of how much you profit by them folding. But one of the biggest mistakes amateur SNG players make is calling too many all-ins when it's -EV to do so! You always should factor in looser calling ranges than the ideal range.

If you know CO from 2p2, he probably has studied SNG-PT. In that case, he probably knows about how many hands he can push here.

+EV pushes for CO after assigning a mix of default and loose calling ranges for the other players: 44+,A9o+,A4s+,KJo+,K9s+,QJo,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s

In that case, +EV calls: 99+,AQo+,AJs+

ATs is close, but not worth the risk here.

Ok well I respect and appreciate your input, and I DEFINETLY agree people do not push enough. When I said "he knows what he's doing" I more of meant he seemed like an aggressive, winning player. Probably should have made that clearer. I called and he flipped over [Ts]. I'm not trying to be results oriented (I lost the hand anyways), I'm just saying I do belive a good $50 SNG players pushing range is much wider than the one you suggested.


If this were a $20 SNG and I had no read I would definetly agree with you though, because people push much less often.

I will look into getting the program you recommended, how much does it run for?

Also just to stress how much I agree that people don't push enough and fold too easily, I'd probably push [8c] or something if I were in CO's position.

I'm sure tons of people would disagree with that, but you simply just don't get called enough to make it not profitable.

It sounds like you're on the right track with your pushes. I'm sure J8o is at least moderately +EV push against tighter players in the blinds. This program will simply make sure your pushes and calls are significantly +EV or not. If the players left to act are on the tighter side, you can push more hands profitably.

If you meant CO seems to be a winning player, then I agree, his range is probably loose enough where calling with ATs is moderately +EV. I play on the conservative side and only take the significantly +EV pushes/calls. There's much to be said for letting the donks knock each other out in many of these SNGs.

It uses a concept called , which factors in your prize pool equity with all your pushes, folds, or calls. It only computes, in a pushing or calling situation, which hands give you a significant gain in equity and which don't. To figure that out, this program calculates what happens to your equity if-

1) you fold
2a) you call and lose
2b) you call and win
2c) you call and split

In each situation. Then it compares folding to calling or pushing. The guideline used for significantly +EV pushes are those that give you 0.5% more equity than folding. Read the link above for more information on this. And the tutorials in SNG-PT (free version) also will help you out there.

You are the one making assumptions. You assume the calling ranges of your opponents based on whatever reads you have, or you default them to certain ranges (I tend to default most of them to loose range). The program then compares all your possible actions given those factors that you input, and tells you if you're missing up on a significantly +EV situation or not.

The thing I've been exploiting from SNG PT for a while now is the fact that it does not take into account future hands. For example, you hold whatever UTG on the bubble and SNG PT tells you to fold. The decision for this hand is no doubt positive expectation. But next hand you're on the big blind with 3 blinds total before posting. You're stuck with calling a lot of hands, possibly any two depending on stack sizes. It's an extreme example, but you get the idea. I think if one was able to completely meld the two as far as perfect game theory, not only for the current hand but for future hands, that would be quite a product. In the mean time, I'll be more than happy to take the current slightly negative EV for the longterm highly positive EV.

Lee

That link doesn't work but I am super curoius about this Independent Chip Modeling thing you speak of. Can you get a working link or direct me to where I can learn about it?

Whoops, add an 'l' to the end of the link. Html, not htm.

http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/lesson.html

You're right, SNG-PT cannot take into account future hands - there are too many complications there. That's where you have to make the final decision.