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Can't seem to turn the corner

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Can't seem to turn the corner

Postby KM78 » Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:03 pm

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my 2 cents

Postby gnarus » Mon Aug 08, 2005 5:13 am

Judging from my own stats and what I've read, 7 is in the normal range of a winning player. Anyone can go through a rough patch. I think it also depends on how many games you have played. If your sample size is 1000 tournaments, I think a losing streak of 7 would be very usual, but probably on the high side if you only have 100 or so.

Honestly, I think the only real relevance to "in a row" is to see if the cause was going on tilt which you've already admitted to. I've read that 300 tournaments is enough to have a good read on your ROI. Don't like at it after a losing streak or a winning streak, just where its generally been.

Hope thats helpful.

Kev
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Postby Nashvegas » Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:59 am

Everything is a matter of probability.

Lets say your ITM is 40% -- your chance of being OTM is 60%. Your chances of being OTM 8 times in a row starting with any particular game are (0.60^8), or 1.67%. Your chances of not having a streak of 8 OTM in a set of 100 would be about 20%.

If your ITM is 50%, your chances of being OTM 8 times in a row starting with any particular game are 0.49%, and your chances of not having a streak of 8 OTM in a set of 100 would be 70%.

So there's a big difference. A 50% ITM player will have that happen to him once every 200 SNGs or so, but a 40% ITM player will have that happen once every 50 SNGs or so.
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Postby bobby » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:26 pm

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