Had a hand from one of my SNGs earlier today that went like this:

PokerStars Game #5734355320: Tournament #29019484 $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2006/07/30 - 11:00:03 (ET)
Table '29019484 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: Himclip85 (6870 in chips)
Seat 8: GodlikeRoy (4103 in chips)
Seat 9: ACGuns (2527 in chips)
Himclip85: posts the ante 50
GodlikeRoy : posts the ante 50
ACGuns: posts the ante 50
Himclip85: posts small blind 300
GodlikeRoy : posts big blind 600

Holecards:
Dealt to GodlikeRoy
RAISE ACGuns, 1877 to 2477 and is all-in
RAISE Himclip85, 4343 to 6820 and is all-in

Do you call or fold, and why? I've done the ICM calculations of this scenario and will post them after a few responses. I knew the correct move in the situation but I was surprised at just how much more profitable it was over the other option (calling vs folding).

What is the payout structure?

It's a $55 + $5 Turbo on Stars with 9 players.

1st is $247.50
2nd is $148.50
3rd is $99.00

Standard 50/30/20.

Without having any ICM calcs. I'm saying this is a fold. You are probably dominated in a 3-way pot. I'm probably wrong though.

shorty: 2527
bgistack: 6870
me: 4103

1st: 247.50
2nd: 148.50
3rd: 99.00

99 vs shorty: 72.1%
99 vs bigstack: 54.2%
bigstack vs shorty: 63.4%

Call and win (39.07%)
-----------------------------

shorty: 3rd
bigstack: 2767
me: 10733

$ = 0.8 x 247.50 + 0.2 x 148.50 = $227.70
$EV = 227.70 x 0.3907 = $88.96


Call and lose but bigstack wins (29.03%)
-----------------------------------------------------

shorty: 3rd
bigstack: 1st
me: 2nd

$ = $148.50
$EV = 148.50 x 0.2903 = $43.12

Call and lose but shortstack wins but I win sidepot (15.12%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

shorty: 7581
bigstack: 2767
me: 3152

$ = (3152/13500) x 495 = $115.57 [this is assuming we are all of equal skill, i assume my edge is slightly higher here but for arguements sake I will leave it at this]
$EV = 115.57 x 0.1512 = $17.47


Call and lose but shortstack wins and bigstack wins sidepot (13.69%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$ = 99.00
$EV = 99.00 x 0.1369 = $13.55



Fold and bigstack wins (63.4%)
----------------------------------------

shorty: 3rd
bigstack: 10047
me: 3453

$ = (3453/13500) x 396 = $101.28
$EV = 101.28 x 0.634 = $64.21

Fold and shortstack wins (36.6%)
-------------------------------------------

shorty: 5704
bigstack: 4343
me: 3453

$ = (3453/13500) x $495.00 = $126.61
$EV = 126.61 x 0.366 = $46.33



That is assuming that the shortstack is pushing any 2 there, and the bigstacks range is 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+. If his range is slightly tighter, say 66+, ATs+, AJo+ then calling would be a little less profitable but still the right move.

So clearly calling is a much, much better option. In this case it's a difference of $50.

Counter-intuitive, to say the least.