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Leading out with set in raised pot, turn play?

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Leading out with set in raised pot, turn play?

Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Oct 25, 2006 10:26 am

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) from (Format: Bet The Pot)

MP3 (t1950)
CO (t1490)
Button (t1430)
SB (t1370)
BB (t1260)
Hero (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [3h], [3d].
Hero calls t20, 2 folds, MP2 raises to t120, MP3 calls t120, 4 folds, Hero calls t100.

Flop: (t390) [Jd], [7c], [3c] (3 players)
Hero bets t200, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t200.

Turn: (t790) [9c] (2 players)
Hero...

I don't know what MP3 was calling with pre-flop or on the flop, but I'll assume he's just a donkey. What's my play on the turn? I think I should have check-called incase he was chasing the flush, and also betting out could scare away many hands I can get value from with a river bet, or inducing him to bluff.

edit: Blah... I should have bet more on the flop too. Probably around 3/4 would be better - 280 or 300 or so.
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Postby HoldemJunkie » Wed Oct 25, 2006 11:36 am

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Oct 25, 2006 11:57 am

Welcome to our forums! Glad to see some new faces participating. If you're ever unsure about your play, post here and we will help out. Some of us have been playing thousands of SNGs and a couple (uhm... just me now that Roy's going to NL cash) exclusively play Donk-N-Gos, so we're more than qualified to help out in most situations. Even after playing this many SNGs, you can always improve and I still review my play after my sets of SNGs.

In the actual hand, I bet 450 on the turn and he folded. If he shoved, I'd pretty much have to call. I think check-calling would be better for three reasons:

1) If he has the flush, he probably won't try to blow me out of the pot and give me a chance to boat up. If I lead into him and he shoves, I'm definitely calling despite the high probability he has a flush. If he actually has the flush, I don't want to put myself all-in here.

2) If he has a weak hand, he won't call my bet when I'm very far ahead. When you hit a set, you want to extract maximum value. Checking induces a bet from a worse hand.

3) If he checks behind on the turn, I'll bet small on the river to price in a call. He'll pretty much have to call with any pair there.
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Postby HoldemJunkie » Wed Oct 25, 2006 12:42 pm

I see where you are coming from. I have back into these things for the past two weeks and have been running horribly so I have been taking a pessimistic approch (always thinking I am beat) towards about 90% of the pots I enter. The 10% optimistic approach occurs when i get AA or KK in late postition and have 3 limpers and a min raise in front of me and it turns back to pessimism when I get cracked by KJ offsuit.

Anyway, enough complaining. What if the tables were turned and you did check on the turn. Are you pushing if he fires somewhere between 450 and pot? No way I smooth call there looking to fill up. I think I would have to push. Well, thinking about it more that might be the right play. I think I do have a tendency to lose value on big hands during these bad runs by "overprotecting" them with aggression which I dont think is necessarily wrong becuase you will still see people calling a 450 chip bet with TPTK and the Ac.
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:30 pm

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