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need some help with my bubble play

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need some help with my bubble play

Postby libro » Fri Nov 11, 2005 5:12 am

ive played alittle over 100 $6 turbo sng's and the result is abit better than break even, when i look how i placed i have pretty much 4 and 5 places.

I think my problem is that i dont know really how to act when iam on the bubble with medium stack, then i get abit intence and push alot or get abit passive and it seems like the outcome is the same i get feecked :D

Iam going to post couple of hands and you can comment if its bad or ok ;) and maybe some tip what i should start to think about

here i pick up AT the best hand ive seen in awhile, maybe should not push AT UTG 4handed?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

Button (t6605)
SB (t3603)
BB (t1435)
Hero (t1857)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [As], [Tc].
Hero raises to t1832, 2 folds, BB calls t1210 (All-In).

Flop: (t3117) [9s], [Qh], [8s] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t3117) [3h] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3117) [Qd] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t3117

Results in white below:
Hero has As Tc (one pair, queens).
BB has Ad Kc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: BB wins t2520. Hero wins t597.


Maybe iam to aggresive with pp's around the bubble to or just unlucky the times i push or bad timeing

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)

SB (t2670)
BB (t3765)
UTG (t4330)
Hero (t2735)

Preflop: Hero is Button with [9s], [9c].
1 fold, Hero raises to t2710, 1 fold, BB calls t2310.

Flop: (t5095) [Qh], [4s], [4h] (2 players)

Turn: (t5095) [2s] (2 players)

River: (t5095) [Qd] (2 players)

Final Pot: t5095

Results in white below:
BB has Kh Kd (two pair, kings and queens).
Hero has 9s 9c (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: BB wins t5095.


this push with 99 i think is a good one, i was just unlucky to run into KK but maybe iam wrong here?

i would be greatful for any kind of advice

regards Christofer
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Postby BigPhish » Fri Nov 11, 2005 10:21 am

Hand 1 - I don't think I push with AT offsuit on the bubble, but then again I don't play turbos. You're the short stack but you can raise 3xBB without eliminating yourself. If you get played back at, then you can make the "all in" decision. Part of the issue here, too, is that your stack is sooooooo short in comparison to the button. If he has any sort of hand, he's going to call you just to swat you.

Hand 2 - I don't think I push with 99 there. You're only getting called if you're behind or in a race so you're risking your tournament to bully your way into 600 chips. You're not hurting nearly enough to take that risk. Just put in the raise that's been getting most people to fold - risk less. Yes, you got unlucky facing KK, but you shouldn't have risked your stack in that situation either.
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 12:20 pm

You had bad luck running into those hands. AJ+ and TT+ are only dealt 5% of the time, afterall, so three players collectively have a 15% chance of being dealt those hands.

Hand 1: I also used to push ATo in those situations, but now that I've seen the math behind folding, it makes sense.

1) When you pick up the blinds here, you aren't gaining that much equity. If the blinds were 150/300 or 200/400, then it'd be a clear push.

2) Your position is the worst possible. Even though each player only will call 5-10% of the time, that means you will be called nearly 20-30% of the time and you don't want that.

3) Almost anyone who calls you will be a slight favorite (underpair) or have you dominated (AJ+).

4) If you lose, you're out.

So to summarize... you won't gain much equity here and almost every hand that calls you will be a favorite. Wait until the next level before pushing with ATo and AJo against those stacks.

-

Hand 2: Clear push. No doubt whatsoever. Here's the differences between the two situations:

1) You only have 6x the BB here, so you're more desperate. And taking down the blinds (or doubling up) increases your equity a good amount.

2) No matter your opponents hand ranges, tightest, or loosest, your hand fares well. Against the tightest hand ranges, there's over a 85% chance none of them have any of the premium hands. Against the loosest hand ranges, you'll be called by 44-88, A7s, T9s and such, where you're a clear favorite. Even if you're called by two overcards like KQ, you're still a slight favorite.

Don't forget, here you're desperate, so being the slight favorite in a race is still a good situation. It's better than being the overcards.

-

Like I mentioned earlier, don't start thinking you made a bad push just because you happened to run into a big hand once or twice. There are times when I should be pushing nearly any two in the SB and occasionally I will run into AT+ or the big pairs. A little more than 90% of the time, you'll scoop up the blinds uncontested, so always remember the long run.
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Postby libro » Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:59 am

i would like to start and thank you guys for the nice answers!

EP iam trying to see the long run, but i think i make some bad decision, thats why i posted some hands just to hear what you others should have done.. i can show many hands that ive gone out with.. pretty oftent running in to big hands :)

i have played 125 $6 Turbos on PS now and the result isnt great but.. i think i have to many 4-6 places and to many 2 place finishes and only a ROI of 16%

1.18
2.20
3.13
4.21
5.21
6.15

that aint a nice view ;)

maybe i "gamble" to little when i hit the bubble?
but most of the time when i get in top 3 im oftent short stacked, and then probably not aggresiv enough..

what i have to do (i think) is try to transform some 2 places in to 1 places and reduce the 4 and 5 places..

atm iam pretty much playing after Nash tactical advice.. what iam doing bad according to that tactic is that iam not stealing blinds oftent enough i think..maybe iam little scared to run in to something big :) and when i try a steal get called, miss and gets faced with a nasty bet on flop.. ive lost 3-4xbb and again shortstacked.. i really dont know how to handle this blind stealing situations 100%

regards Christofer
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Postby tommyhawk » Mon Nov 14, 2005 7:30 am

Hi LIbro,


I would have raised the minimum on the A10 hand and would have laid them down when reraised what is they would have done I think.

The 99 hand I just saw that there is already $700 in the pot and you are first of the small stacks to pay blinds. I think I would have pushed also. Just raising will get you small stacked and you can't fold so all-in is the only way.You need to get agressive and get some chips just unlucky he had cowboys.

Don't forget 16% ROI is not bad at all. You are making money.

Maybe you should try to get more chips when getting to 5th or 4th. I don't know much about your play. I see hands all the time where I thought people could get much more out of. Steal blinds when at $100-200 with antes level. In the turbo's people are not reluctant to go all in early on. So if you got the nuts and you think your opponent has hit something just slide it open often they will pay you of.
Coming close to money be agressive raise 1 out of 3 hands with anything when blinds are high.People won't call you unless they have a big hand.

When in money and low stacked go all in with any K7 or higher. When you are about tied and there is a low stack wait and only play him with A8 or higher or let the other guy get him. You don't want to double him up when you can easily blind him out.

So mind you 16% is ok and it will only get better the more you play and start to recognize the situations you are in.

Tommyhawk
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:35 am

I strongly advise against minimum raising PF, especially when you're short-stacked. If you're going to play the hand, just push it. Minimum raises get called A LOT more than all-ins.
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Mon Nov 14, 2005 9:13 am

Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby tommyhawk » Mon Nov 14, 2005 10:46 am

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