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overplayed AK

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overplayed AK

Postby Hofstra » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:47 am

$10 SNG on UB. Blinds at 10/20, 10 people left.

I get [Ah][Kd] in MP. EP raises to 40. I've seen him raise like that with many marginal hands, so I reraise to 100 to get it heads up, which works. (We both have around 800 left now.)

Flop: [As][Kc][Jh].

Opponent bets 150. I think I'm ahead and that he has a weaker ace, so I raise to 400. He calls.

Turn: [Qs].

Opponent moves allin for 400 more. Anyone call this? What do you put my opponent on? I couldn't imagine him calling my flop raise with a hand containing a T, so I called fearing a set at worst, but was wrong: he had AT.

How to get away from these without crippling your stack?

Pieter
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Postby Three Outer » Thu Feb 03, 2005 2:59 pm

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Postby Telemachus » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:07 am

A classic SnG dilemma, in my view.

In the past I would have re-raised pre-flop w AK as you did. However, at present, I am erring more on the side of calling a raise with it. The primary reason I have been doing this is you can't read much, if anything, into how they react. It comes back to Ciaffione's point about not raising with a hand that you wouldn't be comfortable calling a re-raise with. What happens if he moves all in? You have a clear fold, in my view, even though, at these levels, you could well have him dominated. So I would have flat called with AK, and seen a flop. This also has helped me not overplay it postflop, which I know have tended to.

I like your raise on the flop- with a board like that, you have to figure you are ahead. When he goes all in on the turn, you have a very tough decision. I think that you can make a case for both, but I would have folded here, in spite of, as three says, 3.5 to 1 pot odds on my money.

Here is why I fold- any hand with a 10 in it makes the straight, and any big pp has tripped up. It is also not impossible that he flopped the nut straight. I don't like calling an all bet, and possibly going broke, with only TPTK on this board. If you fold, you have 400 chips left- this can be enough to cash. Incidentally, if he had checked the turn, I probably would have moved all in.

Had a similar situation to this on Party a couple of nights ago, playing 2 10 SnGs simultaneously. First hand, get AQ on the button and raise 3 BBs. 1 limper calls, as do both blinds. Flop is A K J. Checked to me. I overbet the pot and got re-raised by the limper all in. I think for ages, am 60% 'sure' I'm ahead, and fold, leaving myself with 580 or so out of 800. He shows the Q 10. I went on to win this one, while, on the other table went out in 5th despite doubling up on the 2nd hand with QQ v 10 10 all in pre!
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Postby Three Outer » Fri Feb 04, 2005 9:17 am

I don't particularly like a flat call preflop. At the $10 level, you're almost always guaranteed to be ahead, which he was in this case. As for calling the all in, I still need to know what his stack is like.
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Postby Telemachus » Fri Feb 04, 2005 9:27 am

Why don't you like the call pre, three? I don't agree that you 'are almost guaranteed to be ahead' as you say, because any PP is a favourite against you, with KK and AA massive favourites. Sure you might be dominating a smaller ace, but what if he pushes all in? Do you call? I think calling an all in bet is a massive mistake with AK here, and one that you open yourself up to the possibility of if you re-raise. And what if he just calls your re-raise and the board is ragged? Do you just give it up to a raise from him? I think you risk too much with a re-raise here, especially at a $10 SnG where your sole focus at the start is making the money.

At the early stages of an SnG far better to be passive and wait for spots you know you are ahead, rather than taking chances in marginal situations.

Hofstra points out that both he and his opponent had around 800 at the start of the hand, btw.
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Postby Three Outer » Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:04 am

Oh you're right, I didn't see that he said he had around 800, my bad.

My reasoning against the flat call:

You are correct in pointing out that any PP is ahead, but those pocket pairs are ready to dump their hands if they don't flop their set. The only hands that have you in bad shape are AA and KK, obviously. If he reraises after my reraise, I dump it. If he flat calls, then we take a flop and I bet out half the pot if checked to, barring an intricate board, or fold if bet at.

I think a strong case can be made for folding preflop as well for the reasons you pointed out. Simply put, it's too early to risk alot of chips preflop on AK.

I believe a flat call is just much too passive with AK in this spot. People will min. raise with a garden variety of hands in $10 SNG's, and this player serves as a testament to that. If he doesn't have a PP, then you most likely have him smothered. If he does, he's gonna need to flop his set to take this pot from you.

So in order, I vote reraise to 120 as the best move, folding the second best, and flat calling third.

As for calling the all in...it's a tough spot. Like I said earlier, you're getting 3.5:1 to call, and you have 4 clean outs on the river...I probably fold but it's kind of a close call, IMO.
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Postby Telemachus » Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:17 am

Think you make some good points here, three, although I am sticking to my guns.

The reason I still have misgivings about re-raising here is that at this level, you get almost no equity from people folding, as these players are likely to call a re-raise with just about anything, certainly anything they would raise with. This means that then equity you get from people folding 'better' hands, eg smaller pocket pairs, does not count at 10 dollar SnGs. So basically you are reraising in the near certainty you are getting called. I think that strategy is incorrect for early in a low level SnG like this. You are putting a lot more chips into a pot that you will have no way of knowing you are ahead in unless you hit an ace or k, which only happens about 1 time in five, or so. You also say you would fold if he bet to you and you didn't hit- so why not just call, keep the pot small, until you know where you are, in position on the flop?

The reason I am calling is because so many people play smaller aces like they should play AK, as you point out.

It is weird cause I think folding AK preflop in this spot is too passive, where as you clearly feel flat calling is too passive! Interested to hear the thoughts of others.
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Postby Three Outer » Fri Feb 04, 2005 11:00 am

I agree that a majority of $10 players won't fold out to a reraise here, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. With AK, you have to assume you're ahead, or at the very least in a better position to take a flop (up against PP's), so why not get more money in the pot when you're in a good spot against his probable hand and in position against him?

Another thing that flat calling does is open up the opportunity for other players to call. If I'm holding 55 on the button and there's a min. raise, a flat call, and another flat call, I'm more inclined to play it for 40 if my stack is not in danger.
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